Is it safe to go long on Bitcoin?Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDRyan_Lewis1Macro Game: Expectation of Rate Cut Reaches Bottom + Dollar Under Pressure Provides Elasticity Although there is an increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut in December, the probability of a rate cut has dropped to a neutral range of 55%, and the market has fully absorbed the hawkish expectations. There is limited further negative space. The government shutdown has led to the absence of economic data, and in addition, the release of loose expectations by White House officials. If the subsequent employment or inflation data are not in line with expectations, the probability of a rate cut is expected to quickly rise, providing impetus for the valuation repair of risky assets. At the same time, the US dollar index has entered an adjustment cycle after its previous strength, and the "depreciation trade" trend strengthens the attractive appeal of Bitcoin's hedging attribute, forming a risk asset resonance with gold as a safe-haven asset. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：98500-99500 tp:101500-102500 sl：97500