PLTR to $150: Overvaluation, AI Hype, Slowing Government Growth Palantir Technologies Inc.BATS:PLTRTopgOptionsIf you haven`t bought PLTR at $16: Palantir has become one of the most crowded trades of the AI boom. While the company is strong fundamentally, the stock price has detached from reality. A move toward $150 (post-split) is not only reasonable — it is structurally likely. 1. Extreme Valuation — PLTR Trades Like a Hyper-Growth AI Leader, But Growth Is Slowing Palantir’s current valuation assumes: accelerating revenue growth massive enterprise AI adoption long-term dominance in the AI/defense space But real numbers tell a different story: government revenue growth has slowed commercial AI revenue is not scaling as fast as expected current valuation implies “perfection” PLTR is priced like Nvidia, but grows closer to a legacy enterprise software company. That gap must eventually close. 2. Government Contracts Are Growing Much Slower Than Expected Historically, the Gov segment was Palantir’s growth engine. Now: U.S. federal agencies face budget constraints large DoD and DHS contracts are delayed or split among competitors players like Anduril, C3.ai, and smaller defense tech shops are taking share geopolitical spending doesn’t translate directly into PLTR revenue Slowing government growth is a major red flag, because it removes the company’s most stable source of revenue. 3. AI Hype in the Commercial Segment Is Not Converting Into Real Revenue (Yet) Most of the excitement around PLTR in 2024–2025 comes from: AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) enterprise copilots generative AI tools predictive modeling engines But the commercial AI pipeline suffers from: too many POCs (proof-of-concepts) long implementation timelines (6–24 months) high customer acquisition costs conservative corporate spending The hype is real. The revenue, not so much. 4. Heavy Insider Selling — A Consistent Bearish Signal Top insiders have repeatedly sold shares into every major rally: Alex Karp (CEO) Shyam Sankar (COO) multiple VPs and directors Notice what’s missing: large insider buying. Insiders consistently cash out when retail enthusiasm peaks, which historically precedes corrections. Macro Risk: If AI Capex Slows, PLTR Gets Hit Harder Than NVDA PLTR is far more sensitive to an AI spending slowdown than hardware leaders like Nvidia, which still enjoy massive chip demand.