BTCUSD Short ideaBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDComteSt.GermainTexchnical factors: More downside is expect after breaking 2 significant channels, ending the week to close below. Anticipate a rally (eye icon) and watch for price action breakdown on LTF...preferably the 4h chart. Medium term downside to BTC 85,000.00. Macroeconomic Factors: BTC's risk-on profile exposes it to global headwinds: Interest Rates and Monetary Policy: The Fed's hawkish pivot—December rate cut odds at 50% (down from 70%)—has strengthened the USD, pressuring non-yielding assets like BTC. Persistent core inflation (3.2% YoY in October) risks hikes, echoing 2022's bear market when rates crushed crypto by 75%. Post-shutdown liquidity crunches and QT continuation could contract money supply, undermining BTC's "hard money" thesis if global M2 shrinks. Inflation Hedge Failure: BTC has decoupled negatively from inflation narratives, falling as gold/silver soar amid safe-haven bids. Geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade, Ukraine-Russia) drive flight to fiat, not crypto, with BTC's correlation to tech stocks amplifying selloffs (Nasdaq -2% drag). Elon Musk's $38T U.S. debt warning has fueled panic, but without policy relief, fiscal woes could trigger broader risk aversion. Economic Growth: Slowing GDP, rising unemployment (4.1%), and tech sector slumps (AI bubble fears) have eroded risk appetite, with BTC behaving more like a high-beta stock than a hedge. Thin liquidity post-rally exacerbates volatility, as seen in the $19 billion liquidation. Dovish hopes are fading, leaving BTC exposed to a tightening cycle.