Triple Resonance Lays a Solid Foundation for UpsideBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDRyan_Lewis1 Core Logic for Going Long: Triple Resonance Lays a Solid Foundation for Upside 1. Institutional Trends: Strong Low-Level Absorption, Clear Capital Layout Signals Despite short-term profit-taking in the market, institutional capital continues to flow in at low levels. According to CoinDesk data, large institutional buy orders emerged in the $94,000 support zone, with OTC market trading volume reaching $18.6 billion in 24 hours—surging 42% from the recent average. Institutions like JPMorgan and Galaxy Digital absorbed selling pressure through the OTC market. Meanwhile, the outflow trend of ETF funds has slowed, with net outflows narrowing to $120 million in the past 3 days—a stark contrast to the previous daily outflows of $500 million—reflecting institutions’ "buying on dips" behavior. Historical data confirms that concentrated institutional absorption at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level (corresponding to $94,200) leads to an 83% probability of growth in the subsequent month. 2. Fundamentals: Solid Hash Rate Support, Uncompromised Network Security Mining fundamentals continue to improve, providing underlying support for prices. Bitcoin’s hash rate momentum indicator remains in positive territory and continues to rise, with the current hash rate stable above 370 EH/s. There has been no "miner capitulation selling" typically seen during sharp declines. Miners’ balances remain stable, with a 30-day net selling volume of only 0.8%—far below the 5% average during bear markets—indicating high miner recognition of current prices. Network security and consensus foundations have not been affected by the correction. The divergence between hash rate and price signals potential for subsequent price catch-up. 3. Technicals & Sentiment: Resonance of Supports + Sentiment Bottoming, Rebound Conditions Mature Technically, multiple supports form a resonance. $95,600 lies between the $94,200 Fibonacci 0.618 support and the short-term key support at $95,543—a zone whose effectiveness was verified during the Q4 2024 rally. On the daily chart, MACD green bars continue to shorten, with bearish momentum gradually fading. The RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold zone to 41, signaling the end of short-term adjustments. In terms of market sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to a low of 28, leaving ample room for sentiment recovery. Trading volume has shrunk from 27,579 BTC during the previous volume-driven decline to a current low of 165 BTC, indicating phased exhaustion of selling pressure and distinct characteristics of consolidation and bottoming. 4. Macroeconomic Environment: Policy Expectation Game, Limited Downside Room Uncertainty surrounding Fed policy persists, but the market has fully priced in hawkish expectations. The economic recession risks and affordability crisis mentioned by New York Fed President Williams provide potential support for a December rate cut. While market pricing for rate cuts fluctuates, there is limited room for further downside. After the end of the U.S. government shutdown, sentiment toward risk assets has improved. As a high-elasticity risk asset, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from expectations of liquidity easing and rally in resonance with U.S. stocks and commodities. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：95000-96000 tp:97000-98000 sl：93500