BTCUSD – bullish PO3 in play at macro POCBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDralphespritBTC put in a new ATH around $125–126k in October and has since sold off to about $95.6k, a drawdown of roughly 24%. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets regularly see 20–35% pullbacks on the way to their peaks, so this correction is still inside a “normal” mid-cycle range rather than an outlier. On the 1D chart we’ve got a clear range distribution at the highs (Wyckoff-style) followed by a sharp move down into a manipulation box around $93–96k. That zone is now loaded with confluence support: Macro FRVP POC ~96,215 from the previous macro range – the price where the most volume traded, often acting as a strong S/R pivot. FRVP from the Aug-2024 low shows a major high-volume node in the 92–95k band, reinforcing this area as a fair-value region rather than thin air. The 2-Day 200 EMA is rising into the same area, adding dynamic trend support from a higher timeframe. Just above sits the Bull Market Support Band (20-week SMA + 21-week EMA), which has historically been where 30–40% pullbacks found support in prior bull markets before new all-time highs. PO3 upside thesis Phase 1 – Range: distribution at 120–125k (yellow box). Phase 2 – Manipulation: stop-hunt below range into the $93–96k confluence (macro POC + FRVP + 2D 200EMA + BMSB underside). Phase 3 – Expansion: if price holds above $93k (no 3 daily closes below) and reclaims the BMSB / local down-trend, the setup targets a new expansion leg back into $130–140k+, in line with external bullish scenarios that still frame this as a mid-cycle correction rather than a completed top. Invalidation / bear path Breakdown: 3 consecutive daily closes below $93k would signal loss of the current manipulation range. That opens $85k as the next major demand area; failure there brings the $74–75k HL pivot back into play as a full cycle-risk support and likely further bear market momentum.