KEITH BRADSHER2025年11月10日中国宁波，吉利汽车工厂装配线上的工人。 Qilai Shen for The New York TimesAfter months of surging demand, China’s exports unexpectedly dipped in October, the first drop in eight months, partly from an ongoing slide in prices for many of China’s most popular exports like cars, solar panels and batteries.在需求激增数月后，10月中国出口意外下滑，这是八个月来的首次下降，部分原因在于中国一些最受欢迎出口商品——汽车、太阳能电池板和电池——价格持续下跌。The value of Chinese exports slipped 1.1 percent in October from a year earlier, China’s General Administration of Customs said on Friday. Western economists had expected China to announce another month of growth.据中国海关总署上周五公布的数据，10月中国出口额同比下降1.1%。西方经济学家原本预期中国会再次录得增长。China’s exports have continued to boom this year, despite its trade war with the United States and rising tariffs in developing countries like Brazil, India, and Turkey, which also fear the effect on their factories’ employment from a deluge of low-cost goods made in China. Until October, shipments of Chinese goods to other regions of the world had more than offset the downturn in trade to the United States.尽管正与美国陷入贸易战、且巴西、印度和土耳其等发展中国家也纷纷提高关税以防低价中国产品冲击本国制造业就业，但今年中国出口总体仍保持强劲。直到10月份，中国对世界其他地区的出口增长完全抵消了对美贸易的下滑。China is still on pace for a second straight year of record trade surpluses.中国仍有望连续第二年创下贸易顺差新高。The physical volume of China’s exports has grown rapidly this year, lifted by a flood of Chinese cars, electronics, household appliances and other goods pouring into world markets. But the overall value of its exports is not keeping pace, as Chinese companies are offering significant discounts to overseas buyers to offload excess factory capacity.今年以来，中国出口的实际数量增长迅速，大量汽车、电子产品、家电及其他商品涌向全球市场。但出口总值的增长未能同步，因为中国企业正向海外提供大幅折扣以消化过剩产能。China’s exports to the European Union, Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia all weakened in October. The composition of China’s exports has been shifting toward products like cars and solar panels, which have experienced some of the largest price drops, and away from lower-technology products like furniture and apparel.10月，中国对欧盟、拉丁美洲、非洲和东南亚的出口均出现疲软。出口结构也在转向汽车、太阳能电池板等价格跌幅较大的产品，低技术含量商品如家具和服装的占比则在下降。The number of exported cars rose nearly 25 percent in October from a year earlier, even as the value of those cars rose only 17 percent.10月出口汽车数量同比增长近25%，但其出口总值仅增长17%。President Trump’s tariffs, by contrast, appear to have had a dwindling effect last month. Exports to the American market fell less in October than they had in either of the two previous months. There were also signs that Chinese companies are bypassing his tariffs by sending goods through other countries instead of directly to the United States.相比之下，特朗普总统的关税政策上月似乎影响减弱。10月中国对美出口的降幅较前两个月有所收窄。同时有迹象显示，中国企业正通过第三国转运商品以避开关税。“A rise in the share of Chinese exports going to Vietnam, the top rerouting hub, suggests that the tariff offset from rerouting continued to expand,” wrote Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, a consulting firm, in a research note. “So if anything, the drag from U.S. tariffs was moderating rather than increasing.”“对越南这一主要转运枢纽出口占比上升，说明通过转运抵消关税影响的情况仍在扩大，“凯投宏观中国经济学家黄子淳在一份研究报告中写道，“因此，如果说有什么变化的话，美国关税带来的拖累在减轻而非加重。”China continued to export more than three times as much to the United States in October as it imported. That large trade surplus has helped Beijing maintain factory employment and strengthen the economy even as a long-running, slow-motion collapse of China’s housing market has badly hurt the finances of many Chinese households.10月，中国对美出口额仍是自美进口的三倍多。这一巨大的贸易顺差帮助北京维持了工厂就业，并在长期缓慢崩盘的房地产市场严重打击家庭财务之际支撑了整体经济。Consumers in China have been cautious about spending after losing a significant portion of their life savings in that downturn. With less demand at home, more of those goods are being redirected to overseas markets.不少中国家庭因楼市低迷损失了大部分积蓄，消费意愿持续低迷。由于国内需求下降，越来越多的商品被转移到海外市场。A slight strengthening of China’s currency, the renminbi, against the dollar in recent months may also have hurt the country’s competitiveness by making Chinese goods more expensive when sold in some overseas markets. But the renminbi has weakened by about 7 percent against the euro in the past year, which has helped Chinese exporters to the European Union.近几个月来，人民币对美元小幅走强，这可能也削弱了中国商品在某些海外市场的竞争力，因为这使得中国商品售价更高。但过去一年人民币兑欧元已贬值约7%，这有利于中国对欧盟出口。Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research note that China’s exports also might have faltered because October had one fewer workday this year than last year.高盛在一份研究报告中指出，10月出口下滑的另一个原因可能是今年的工作日比去年同期少一天。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。