BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages to future rate hikes

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Bank of Japan policymakers appear increasingly aligned on the need to continue normalising interest rates, though opinions differ on timing and conditions, according to the summary of the central bank’s October meeting released Sunday US time. Several members said the BOJ should raise rates further if its economic and price forecasts hold, with one noting that conditions for another move are “almost met.” Others stressed the importance of confirming that companies maintain active wage-setting behaviour before tightening policy, particularly as firms finalise pay plans for next year in response to U.S. tariffs set at 15%.Some members urged patience given uncertainty surrounding global markets and Japan’s new government’s fiscal stance, though one warned that delaying hikes too long could force more aggressive action later. Another said raising rates closer to a “neutral” level now would help prevent distortions in the economy.The summary highlighted a cautious but steady shift toward policy normalisation. Members said Japan is approaching an environment conducive to further rate adjustments if wage and inflation trends remain supportive. One policymaker suggested that a rate increase soon could help counter inflationary risks from a weaker yen but emphasised the need for careful examination before acting. ---The BOJ’s latest summary signals growing comfort with the idea of further tightening, reinforcing market expectations for a potential move in early 2026. Maybe even December 2025. Traders will watch upcoming wage data and comments from board members for confirmation of a December or January hike window.---From the day of the meeting:Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expectedJPY has dropped after the Bank of Japan expected 'on hold' decision, Nikkei upBOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions will continue to support the economyBOJ governor Ueda: No preset ideas about timing of next rate hikeBOJ governor Ueda: We need more data in deciding to adjust degree of monetary easingBOJ governor Ueda: Want to see early momentum of spring wage negotiationsDon't want to read that lot? Here is TD's take on the decision and Ueda, seems a reasonable one:The BoJ’s hold and Ueda’s cautious remarks weakened the yen, but TD Securities said a December move remains on the table as wage data and fiscal coordination evolve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.