USDJPY - 4H - Weekly Analysis - 17-Nov –21-Nov-25US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYonelinkFXOverall Bias: Mild Bearish → Neutral USDJPY is showing tired bullish momentum and forming a lower high structure around 154.50 – 155.00. Price is still inside a large consolidation zone, but signs point to a drop toward 153.00 – 152.80 before any new bullish leg. 📉 Market Structure Analysis 4H Chart ✔ Price rejected 154.90 – 155.00 multiple times ✔ Stochastic is turning down from overbought ✔ Candle wicks show buyer exhaustion ✔ Market forming a triple top / distribution zone This strongly suggests sellers may control early next week. 1H Chart ✔ Price consolidating between 154.00 – 154.60 ✔ Momentum slowing ✔ Last bearish drop was sharp → liquidity taken under 154.00 ✔ Recovery is weak (low volume bounce) This is signaling a potential breakdown rather than continuation upwards. 🔑 Key Price Levels to Watch Resistance / Sell Zones 155.00 – 155.20 → Strong rejection zone 154.70 – 154.90 → Primary weekly sell zone Support / Buy Zones 153.60 – 153.80 → Minor support 152.80 – 153.00 → Major weekly support (target zone) 🎯 Primary Trade Plan (Best Setup) ✅ SELL Setup – High Probability SELL LIMIT: 154.70 – 154.90 STOP LOSS: 155.30 TAKE PROFIT 1: 153.80 TAKE PROFIT 2: 153.00 TAKE PROFIT 3: 152.80 Why this setup works: Selling at premium pricing (top of range) 4H candles show clear exhaustion Strong multi-top structure RR = 1:3 or better 🟡 Alternative Setup (Only if market sweeps up first) If USDJPY does a fake-out spike above 155.00: ⚠️ Liquidity Grab Sell Setup SELL LIMIT: 155.10 – 155.30 STOP LOSS: 155.70 TP: 154.00 → 153.00 → 152.80 This is the smart money reversal setup — extremely reliable when triggered. 🟢 Countertrend BUY Setup (Short-Term Only) If USDJPY drops early in the week into support: BUY LIMIT: 153.00 – 153.20 STOP LOSS: 152.70 TAKE PROFIT: 153.80 → 154.20 📌 Expected Price Flow (Week Projection) Monday–Tuesday: Small rise into 154.70–154.90, final rejection. Wednesday–Thursday: Bearish push toward 153.80, then continuation to 153.00. Friday: Stabilization in the 152.80–153.00 demand zone. ⚓Trading Tips - wait for confirmation rejection candle on lower time frame price entering.