The analysis projects 1.35 million excess deaths and up to 18 million internal refugees over the next decade if current conditions persist.By Middle East ForumThe Middle East Forum today released a comprehensive report documenting Iran’s accelerating trajectory toward state failure driven by a catastrophic water crisis.The report, “The Thirst of a Nation: Iran’s Water-Driven Trajectory Toward State Failure and a Blueprint for Recovery,” provides stark evidence that Iran’s capital Tehran faces imminent “Day Zero” conditions and presents a detailed recovery plan requiring immediate international contingency planning.The report, authored by Guy Goldstein and Rebecca Bar-Sef, reveals that Iran has entered a state of permanent “water bankruptcy” in which national demand far exceeds renewable supply.This politically engineered crisis, resulting from decades of mismanagement and corruption centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has triggered cascading failures across all critical infrastructure.The analysis projects 1.35 million excess deaths and up to 18 million internal refugees over the next decade if current conditions persist.“This report exposes the ultimate consequence of authoritarian misrule—the physical destruction of a nation’s capacity to sustain life,” said Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum.“The Iranian regime has not merely failed to manage water resources; it has systematically destroyed three millennia of Persian water stewardship for profit.President Pezeshkian’s admission that Tehran must be relocated represents an unprecedented acknowledgment of state failure.The international community must prepare now for the humanitarian and security implications of Iran’s collapse.”The report documents how the IRGC’s construction conglomerate, Khatam al-Anbiya, has created what Iranian activists call a “water mafia” that profits from ecologically destructive megaprojects.The Gotvand Dam disaster, which turned the Karun River into a permanent brine factory, exemplifies this corruption—a project that ballooned from $1.5 billion to $3.3 billion while destroying 400,000 date palms and poisoning water supplies for millions.Recent intelligence confirms the crisis has entered a terminal phase.Water reserves at the critical Karaj Dam supplying Tehran have plummeted 75 percent year-over-year to just 28 million cubic meters, while the national electricity deficit has reached 25,000 megawatts, forcing widespread blackouts that further cripple water pumping infrastructure.“The contrast with regional success stories could not be starker,” observed Winfield Myers, managing editor of the Middle East Forum.“While Israel achieves water security through desalination and recycling, and Saudi Arabia implements its Vision 2030 water strategy, Iran’s regime doubles down on the corrupt practices that created this crisis. The proposed $100 billion capital relocation project represents not a solution but the ultimate manifestation of the water mafia’s predatory business model—engineering disasters to justify lucrative contracts.”The report presents a detailed blueprint for recovery centered on an International Water Recovery Consortium that would unite expertise from Israel (technology and governance), Australia (water allocation systems), Singapore (urban water management), the Netherlands (local water governance), and Gulf states (financing).However, this recovery plan requires a fundamental political transition in Iran, as the current regime’s survival depends on the very corruption driving the crisis.The report’s primary recommendation calls for the immediate formation of a “Shadow” Iran Water Recovery Task Force by the United States, European Union, and G7 nations.This proactive contingency planning would prepare emergency response capabilities, establish humanitarian crisis management protocols, and engage regional stakeholders on managing the spillover effects of potential Iranian state collapse.The full report is available here.The post Tehran running dry: New report details Iran’s terminal water crisis appeared first on World Israel News.