FundamentalOverviewThe USD has weakened prettymuch across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, whenmarkets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with themarket needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricingis now showing a 63% probability of a December cut, which is about right. TheNFP and CPI reports will have the final say, and we should get them before thenext FOMC decision.On the CAD side, the BoCcut interest rates by 25 bps at the last meeting as expected bringing thepolicy rate to the lower bound of their estimated neutral rate range of2.25%-3.25%. The central bank has also signalled that they reached the end oftheir cutting cycle, although they kept the door open for another cut ifneeded. On Friday, we got anotherstrong Canadianemployment report with a notable fall in the unemployment rate from 7.1% to6.9%. The data didn’t change anything for the BoC as the central bank won’t cutor hike at this point but helped to trim rate cut expectations further with themarket now seeing just a 36% probability of another cut by the end of 2026. USDCADTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that USDCAD broke below the 1.4080 level following the strong Canadianemployment report. The sellers piled in on the break and will likely target thetrendline around the 1.3950 level. If we get there, we can expect the buyers tolean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally intoa new high. USDCAD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we are trading right in the middle of the two key levels, so there’sno strong level where to lean onto. If we get a pullback into the 1.4080 level,we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level toposition for a drop into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, willwant to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into new highs.USDCAD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a counter-trendline acting as support. The buyers will likelycontinue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs with a defined risk belowit. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase thebearish bets into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front as we just have the weekly US ADPdata tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.