Gold 30 m Decision-Point: Breakout vs. PullbackGoldOANDA:XAUUSDAthensBySahanFundamental Overview The spot price of Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around USD 4,115-4,130 per ounce. Bullish drivers: Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to support gold as a non-yielding store of value. Safe-haven demand remains elevated amid global uncertainty and weaker U.S. economic data. Bearish/neutral risk factors: The U.S. Dollar (USD) is finding some strength, which could cap gold’s upside. With gold already near recent highs, the risk of profit-taking or consolidation is higher. Fundamental Bias Summary: Neutral to slightly bullish — fundamentals support upside, but need trigger for meaningful move. Technical Analysis (30 Minute Frame) Price is trading near USD 4,115-4,130, above yesterday’s range. Key resistance zone: USD 4,150-4,200. A clean breakout here could fuel further gains. Key support zone: USD 4,050-4,000. If price drops below, look for weakness. Technical indicators: RSI on daily/4-hour shows momentum is positive; however intraday momentum may be thinner on the 30m frame. Technical Bias Summary: Favor bullish bias if price breaks above resistance and confirms. Without that, expect range bound or pullback toward support. Trade Plan & Key Levels Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play): Entry: Long above USD 4,150, after 30-min candle close above. Stop-Loss: Around USD 4,010-4,000, depending on risk tolerance. Targets: TP1: ~USD 4,250 TP2: ~USD 4,350 (if momentum strong) Bearish Scenario (Rejection/Breakdown Play): Entry: Short if price fails at resistance zone (4,150-4,200) and breaks below USD 4,000 on 30-min. Stop-Loss: ~USD 4,170-4,200 Targets: TP1: ~USD 3,900 TP2: ~USD 3,800 No-trade / Wait Mode: If price remains stuck between ~USD 4,050 and USD 4,150 without clear breakout or breakdown — better sit out and wait for clearer directional cue. My View for Today I lean slightly bullish, but only if we see a valid breakout above USD 4,150. The fundamental tailwinds (Fed cut hopes + safe-haven) support this. However, if that breakout fails and price rejects, the more likely scenario is a pullback toward USD 4,000-3,900. Thus, I’ll be watching closely for the trigger on the 30-minute chart — execution only after confirmation.