SOMINI SENGUPTA, BRAD PLUMER2025年11月11日印度南部凯亚塔尔附近的一座太阳能农场。该国目前可通过风能、太阳能和水力发电满足一半的电力需求。 Saumya Khandelwal for The New York TimesAs the United States torpedoes climate action and Europe struggles to realize its green ambitions, a surprising shift is taking hold in many large, fast-growing economies where a majority of the world’s people live.在美国阻碍气候行动、欧洲难以实现绿色愿景之际，一个令人意外的转变正在占全球人口多数的多个大型快速增长经济体中发生。Countries like Brazil, India, and Vietnam are rapidly expanding solar and wind power. Poorer countries like Ethiopia and Nepal are leapfrogging over gasoline-burning cars to battery-powered ones. Nigeria, a petrostate, plans to build its first solar-panel manufacturing plant. Morocco is creating a battery hub to supply European automakers. Santiago, the capital of Chile, has electrified more than half of its bus fleet in recent years.巴西、印度、越南等国正加速发展太阳能和风能。埃塞俄比亚、尼泊尔等较贫穷国家则跳过燃油车，直接迈向电动汽车。石油国家尼日利亚计划建设首座太阳能电池板制造厂。摩洛哥正打造电池产业中心，为欧洲汽车制造商供货。智利首都圣地亚哥近年来已实现半数以上公交车队电动化。Key to this shift is the world’s new renewable energy superpower: China.推动这一转变的关键，是全球新晋可再生能源超级大国——中国。Having saturated its own market with solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, Chinese companies are now exporting their wares to energy-hungry countries in the developing world. What’s more, they’re investing billions of dollars in factories that make things like solar panels in Vietnam and electric cars in Brazil.在国内太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机和电池市场饱和后，中国企业如今正将这些产品出口到能源需求旺盛的发展中国家。此外，它们还向越南太阳能板工厂、巴西电动汽车工厂等项目投入数十亿美元。In effect, Chinese industrial policy is shaping the development trajectory of some of the world’s fastest-growing economies.实际上，中国的产业政策正在塑造部分全球增长最快经济体的发展轨迹。“From a climate point of view, the developing countries are showing solutions,” said André Corrêa do Lago, the Brazilian diplomat shepherding this year’s international climate talks, known as COP30, in the Brazilian city of Belém.“从气候角度来看，发展中国家正在拿出解决方案。”今年在巴西贝伦市举行的第30届联合国气候变化大会(COP30)的主席、巴西外交官安德烈·科雷亚·杜拉戈表示。“I think that emerging countries are appearing in this COP with a different role,” he added.“我认为新兴国家将以不同以往的角色参与本次气候大会，”他还说。Is that completely fixing the problem of climate change? No. Most countries, including these big, growing economies, still get the majority of their energy from fossil fuels. Indonesia is still mining vast amounts of coal, the dirtiest energy source. India and China continue their coal-plant building spree. Brazil plans to expand oil production.这是否能彻底解决气候变化问题？答案是否定的。在包括这些大型增长经济体在内的大多数国家，能源仍以化石燃料为主。印度尼西亚仍在大量开采煤炭这一污染最严重的能源。中国和印度仍在持续新建燃煤电厂。巴西计划扩大石油产量。巴西贝伦峰会会场，摄于周一。“我认为新兴国家将以不同以往的角色参与本次气候大会，”会议主席表示。But these countries are increasingly meeting large portions of their energy needs with renewable power, both for the cost savings and for energy security reasons. Many are trying to reduce the amount of fossil fuels they import, to relieve pressure on their foreign currency reserves.但这些国家正越来越多地依靠可再生能源满足大量能源需求，既为节省成本，也出于能源安全考量。许多国家试图减少化石燃料进口，以缓解外汇储备压力。Rapidly falling prices of Chinese technology are enabling them to do that. Ani Dasgupta, head of the World Resources Institute, an environmental research and advocacy group, said it shows how economic development can go hand in hand with reducing greenhouse gas emissions.中国技术的价格快速下降让这一切成为可能。环境研究与倡导组织世界资源研究所所长阿尼·达斯古普塔表示，这表明经济发展与减少温室气体排放可以并行不悖。“Emerging economies are a very important part of the story,” he said. “The reason we should be paying attention is that they have the most people in the world, they have the largest number of poor people in the world, and their energy demands are growing. If these economies don’t change, there’s no chance for the world to get to a safer place.”“新兴经济体是这一进程的重要参与者。”他说，“我们之所以要关注这些国家，是因为它们拥有全球最多的人口和最庞大的贫困人口，能源需求也在不断增长。如果这些经济体不改变发展模式，全球就无法走向更安全的未来。”Ethiopia last year took the extraordinary step of banning the import of new gasoline-powered cars. Nepal reduced import duties on electric vehicles so much that they are now cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines. Brazil raised tariffs on all car imports to compel Chinese automakers like BYD and Great Wall Motors to set up plants inside Brazil.埃塞俄比亚去年采取了一项非同寻常的举措：禁止进口新燃油车。尼泊尔大幅降低电动汽车进口关税，如今电动汽车价格已低于内燃机汽车。巴西提高了所有汽车进口关税，迫使比亚迪、长城汽车等中国车企在巴西本土设厂。Chinese manufacturing investments around the world have exceeded $225 billion in total since 2011, according to the Net Zero Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University, with three-fourths of that money going into what the report’s authors called countries in the global south, a collective term for low-income countries and emerging economies. Adjusted for inflation, that’s more than the United States poured into the Marshall Plan after World War II.约翰斯·霍普金斯大学净零排放政策实验室的数据显示，2011年以来，中国在全球的制造业投资总额已超过2250亿美元，其中四分之三流入该报告作者所称的“全球南方”国家（即低收入国家和新兴经济体的统称）。经通胀调整后，这一金额超过了“二战”后美国实施马歇尔计划的投入规模。Even India, wary of relying on imports from China, its neighbor and rival, has lifted a page from the Chinese industrial policy playbook. The government is using incentives to install huge amounts of solar power and make much more solar equipment at home.即便是对邻国兼竞争对手中国的进口产品心存警惕的印度，也借鉴了中国的产业政策模式。印度政府通过激励措施，推动国内大规模安装太阳能发电设施，并扩大本土太阳能设备生产。India used the summit in Belém last week to remind the world that half of its electricity demand can now be met by wind, solar, and hydropower and that it reached its 2030 targets for pivoting to cleaner energy sources under the Paris Agreement five years early. It has yet to submit its 2035 climate targets.上周在贝伦举行的气候峰会上，印度强调其目前50%的电力需求可通过风能、太阳能和水电满足，且已提前五年实现《巴黎协定》规定的2030年清洁能源转型目标。该国尚未提交2035年气候目标。In short, the center of gravity seems to be shifting.简而言之，全球气候行动的重心似乎正在转移。Ten years ago, when the Paris Agreement was signed, it was the rich, industrialized countries like the United States and Europe that were leaning on developing countries to take faster action to reduce their planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions. Developing countries responded that they, too, had the right to industrialize and that rich countries should help them finance the transition to cleaner fuels.十年前《巴黎协定》签署时，美国、欧洲等富裕工业化国家施压发展中国家加快减排步伐。当时发展中国家则回应称，它们同样拥有工业化的权利，富裕国家应资助它们向清洁能源转型。That financial help has mostly not materialized. The ire of developing-country leaders remains.但这些资金支持大多未能兑现。发展中国家领导人的不满依然存在。But the economics have changed.但经济格局已然改变。“Ten years ago, you had the political commitment, but you didn’t have the markets,” said Kaysie Brown, the associate director for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at E3G, a European research and advocacy group. “Now I think we’re in an inflection point where in some cases, like renewables, you do have the markets. So there’s a question about where in this changing landscape you start to see political leadership come from.”“十年前，我们有政治承诺，却没有市场。”欧洲气候智库E3G气候外交与地缘政治副总监凯西·布朗表示，“如今我认为我们正处于一个转折点，在可再生能源等领域，市场已经成型。关键在于，在这个不断变化的格局中，政治领导力将源自何方。”China has sought to cast itself as a pillar of global stability, particularly after the Trump administration said it would withdraw the United States from the annual climate talks.中国一直试图将自身塑造为全球稳定的支柱，尤其是在特朗普政府宣布美国退出年度气候谈判后。“Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of the time,” the Chinese vice premier, Ding Xuexiang, said last week at the summit. “We need to stay confident, balance such goals as environmental protection, economic development, job creation and poverty eradication.”“绿色低碳转型是时代潮流。我们要坚定信心，统筹保护环境、发展经济、创造就业、消除贫困等目标，”中国副总理丁薛祥上周在峰会上表示。Mr. Ding also urged countries around the world to lower trade barriers for green technology.丁薛祥还呼吁世界各国降低绿色技术贸易壁垒。With Chinese exports of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries hitting records this year, Beijing increasingly has a vested interest in making sure the rest of the world moves faster in adopting renewable energy. Many American and European leaders have expressed alarm at China’s growing dominance, which has undercut their own industries.随着今年中国太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机和电池出口量创下纪录，北京愈发希望确保世界其他地区加快采用可再生能源。许多欧美领导人对中国日益增强的主导地位表示担忧，认为这削弱了他们的本国产业。But at the summit, plenty of emerging countries seem fine with the arrangement.但在此次峰会上，许多新兴国家似乎对这一格局并无异议。“You can’t insist that China has to lower its emissions” and then, later, “complain that China is putting cheap E.V.s all over the world,” Mr. Corrêa do Lago said. “If you are worried about climate, this is good news.”“你不能一方面坚持要求中国减排，另一方面又抱怨中国向全球供应廉价电动汽车。”科雷亚·杜拉戈说，“如果真的关注气候问题，这其实是个好消息。”Somini Sengupta是时报气候报道团队的国际气候记者。Brad Plumer是《纽约时报》记者，报道应对全球变暖的技术和政策举措。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。