CANSLIM OverviewSeagate Technology Holdings PLCNASDAQ:STXGabrielAmadeusLau📘 CANSLIM Overview — The 7 Traits of Big Stock Winners CANSLIM is an acronym developed by William J. O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) and author of How to Make Money in Stocks. It describes the seven common characteristics shared by the biggest winning stocks before their major price moves. The system blends fundamental growth, institutional behavior, and market timing—and is grounded in historical quantitative studies dating back to the 1800s. 🧩 The Acronym: LetterStands ForCore Concept CCurrent Quarterly EarningsExplosive short-term earnings growth AAnnual Earnings GrowthMulti-year compounding of profits NNew Product, Service, or ManagementInnovation driving market leadership SSupply and DemandStock’s float size and institutional accumulation LLeader vs. LaggardRelative strength and group leadership IInstitutional SponsorshipQuality fund ownership and buying pressure MMarket DirectionAligning with the general market trend 1️⃣ C — Current Quarterly Earnings: Big Growth, Not Modest Growth “The biggest winners showed three consecutive quarters of 25%+ growth, but the best averaged 70%+ before their runs.” Measure this quarter vs. the same quarter last year, not sequentially. This avoids seasonal distortions. Ideal Growth Rate: Minimum: +25% YoY EPS growth for 3+ quarters Stronger filter: +70–100% or even triple-digit earnings growth Combine with revenue growth of 30–50% or more. Stocks with massive EPS and sales growth attract institutional attention early. Modern Adjustment: Today’s growth leaders (e.g., NVDA, TSLA, PANW) still show these patterns, though some use non-GAAP EPS or adjusted metrics. The concept—explosive profitability inflection—remains identical. 2️⃣ A — Annual Earnings Growth: Sustained Profitability “Look for at least three years of annual earnings increases.” Consistency is key. Accelerating growth adds conviction. Avoid one-time spikes or negative earnings trends. Favor firms with 3+ years of 20%+ annual EPS growth and positive forward analyst estimates for continuation. Analyst Upward Revisions are particularly powerful—funds often buy on these changes. Interpretation: Multi-year profit acceleration shows management execution, competitive edge, and strong demand. Example: O’Neil’s model studies (1952–2001) showed 73% of winners had +70% EPS growth the quarter before their breakout and 3+ years of rising annual profits. 3️⃣ N — New Product, Service, Management, or Market Catalyst “You want the next Apple, not the next RCA.” Innovation is the engine of multiple expansion. The “new” can take many forms: Breakthrough product or service Transformative business model New leadership or management Market share disruption Examples (then and now): Apple (iPhone), Tesla (EVs), Nvidia (AI GPUs), Uber (gig economy) Earlier eras: IBM, Home Depot, Microsoft Psychological angle: Human nature craves novelty. The market rewards perceived future dominance, not current stability. 4️⃣ S — Supply and Demand: The Float Matters (Less Now) Originally, O’Neil favored smaller floats (≤50–70M shares) since limited supply + strong demand = sharp price moves. “It’s less critical today—large caps can still double or triple. Focus on quality, earnings, and leadership over share count.” The principle still holds but is muted due to: ETFs, passive flows, and massive institutional liquidity Widespread retail access and option leverage The core idea remains: price rises when demand exceeds supply, visible via volume surges. Modern adaptation: Monitor volume spikes, accumulation/distribution, and relative volume ratios over absolute float size. 5️⃣ L — Leader vs. Laggard: The Power of Relative Strength (RS) “Buy the strongest stocks in the strongest groups during a confirmed uptrend.” O’Neil found each bull cycle is led by 2–3 dominant industry groups (e.g., semiconductors, software, solar). Within those, only the top few names outperform meaningfully. Key Filters: Relative Strength (RS) Rating: 85–99 (top 15% of market) Leading groups by RS, EPS growth, and fund buying Avoid laggards even within strong sectors. Modern context: Institutional algorithms still chase relative momentum. RS-based filters would be Ideal. “When you have the strongest stocks, in the strongest sectors, in an uptrend—and you use disciplined stop-losses—it’s very hard not to make money.” 6️⃣ I — Institutional Sponsorship: The Smart Money Footprint “70% of market volume comes from institutions—follow their footprints.” Institutions (mutual funds, hedge funds, pension plans) create sustained demand that drives major trends. Key things to watch: Rising number of institutional holders quarter-over-quarter Presence of high-quality funds (e.g., Fidelity Contra, Vanguard Growth) Volume patterns on charts confirming accumulation Quantitative Significance: Example: Zoom (ZM)—278 funds → 1,413 funds within 7 quarters (5× increase) Enphase (ENPH)—160 → 1,008 funds in 8 quarters Such surges often precede parabolic price advances. 7️⃣ M — Market Direction: The Most Critical Factor “If you don’t get the M right, nothing else matters.” O’Neil’s data showed: 3 out of 4 stocks follow the general market trend. Even perfect fundamentals fail in bear markets. Core Rule: Only buy aggressively during a confirmed market uptrend. The signal is the Follow-Through Day (FTD)—a +1.5% or greater gain on strong volume, typically 4–10 days after a market low. When the Market Is Choppy or Bearish: Reduce exposure or move to cash (cash is a position). Focus on capital preservation over prediction. ⚠️ Risk Management — The “Eighth Principle” “You can be right 1 out of 3 times and still make a fortune—if you cut losses fast.” O’Neil borrowed from Jesse Livermore and Bernard Baruch’s philosophy: Max loss per trade: 7–8% (ideally 5%) Never average down; if it fails the breakout, sell immediately. Emotional capital matters as much as financial capital. Risk Math: LossRequired Gain to Break Even 7%+7.5% 20%+25% 50%+100% → The deeper the drawdown, the harder recovery becomes — and the worse your discipline gets. Cutting losses early keeps both capital and confidence intact. Advanced Discipline: Always use stop-losses near pivot points Size positions so that total portfolio risk ≤1–2% per trade, and the Reward is 3x your risk. Expect that most trades won’t work; winners will more than offset losers 🔢 Practical CANSLIM Checklist StepCriterionTarget Metric CCurrent quarterly EPS growth≥25%, ideally 70%+ AAnnual EPS growth3 consecutive years ≥20% NInnovation or catalystNew product/service/management SSupply-demand imbalanceVolume > average, low float optional LLeadershipRS ≥85; top 3 names in top sector IInstitutional ownershipIncreasing QoQ, ≥2 top-tier funds MMarket trendConfirmed uptrend via FTD RiskStop loss5–8% below entry, always enforced 🧠 Psychological Cornerstones Human nature never changes. Fear and greed drive every cycle—from 1800s railroads to 2020s AI stocks. Discipline beats prediction. Entry precision is less important than loss limitation. Conviction comes from quality. Big winners are clear leaders with strong fundamentals. Cash is a position. Avoid trading in “cold decks” (sideways or down markets). Emotion control = longevity. Protect your confidence as much as your capital. 🧩 Modern CANSLIM Adaptations While CANSLIM’s DNA remains timeless, modern quantitative investors integrate: Relative Volume & RS Ranking (machine-scored) EPS revision momentum (analyst upgrades) Institutional rotation data (13F filings, ETF flows) Macro context: liquidity cycles, Fed policy, credit spreads Technical refinements: base patterns, volume dry-ups, and volatility contraction setups (VCP). 💬 Summary Insight “Nothing has changed since the 1800s—only the tools. Human nature and crowd behavior are constants.” CANSLIM is a structured behavioral framework for spotting institutional accumulation of fundamentally superior companies at the right time in the market cycle. Its greatest edge lies not in stock-picking, but in discipline—knowing what not to touch, when to cut, and when to press. Here is the Screener I use. https://www.tradingview.com/screener/eDLlnKzq/