The Swing Strategy, I been usingExpedia Group, Inc.NASDAQ:EXPEGabrielAmadeusLauZone‑to‑Zone Trading 1.1 Drawing the Zones What is a zone? A price area (not a single line) where the market repeatedly reacts: flips from support→resistance (S/R) or resistance→support (R/S), stalls, or coils. Priority by timeframe: Monthly ≥ Weekly ≥ Daily ≥ Hourly. Higher‑timeframe zones carry more weight. How to mark zones Start on monthly, and highlight obvious S/R bands. Drill down to weekly, refine, or add. Drill down to daily, refine, or add. Drill down to hourly for tactical entries. Clues for a quality zone Prior breakout level that later flips to S/R on retest and consolidates before resolution. Clear historical reaction clusters (wicks, bodies, or gaps). Visible “sensitivity” (multiple rejections/holds in the same area). 1.2 Trading the Zones Entry: Wait for local consolidation near a zone, then take the breakout. Stops: Conservative: Below the box low (consolidation floor). Tight: Mid‑box (accept higher stop‑out rate, better R). Filter: Longs only above 50 SMA, shorts only below 50 SMA (trend filter). 1.3 Range vs. Exact Level Treat zones as bands, not one price tick. I would take the pivot close to the opening of the first red candle if it's a bullish pivot. At times a single line is acceptable (e.g., clean, repeated close‑basis pivot), but default to ranges. 2) Box System 2.1 Market Phases Sideways (consolidation) → build energy (boxes form between zones). Trending → series of HH/HL (up) or LH/LL (down). 2.2 Trend Structure Trends breathe via consolidation → expansion → consolidation. Breakouts can: Go with no retest Retest the boundary and go Brief incursion back into box, then full resolve The first inner zone inside the box is critical: if a new uptrend is valid, the price shouldn’t revisit below it. Stops: below that first inner zone. Note: Zone‑to‑Zone shines in non‑trendy markets (FX, many dividend names). 2.3 Types of Boxes MA roles (fractal): 9 SMA → short‑term momentum 50 SMA → intermediate momentum 21 SMA → the inflection between 9 and 50; often reacts first 2.3.1 Base Box Both the 9 & 50 SMA flatten for an extended period. Highest stored energy; breakouts can start major trends. 2.3.2 50 SMA Box Sideways price, 9 SMA flat, 50 SMA rising/falling into price as dynamic S/R. Breakout after the 50 SMA reaches the box. 2.3.3 9 SMA Box Shorter coil (≈ 3–4 candles). 9 SMA catches up; breakout follows. Shortest consolidation; quicker moves. 2.3.4 9 vs 50 Comparison 9 SMA trend: 2× HH/HL supported by 9. Parabolic (≈20% of cases): each candle’s low should not undercut the prior candle’s low. 9 SMA box: brief sideways until 9 SMA “tags” price → quick reaction. 50 SMA boxes: longer coil; 50 “arrives,” 9 often flat. Base box: 50 is inside & flat; price crossed above/below multiple times. 2.4 System Objectives Checklist Trend-following or mean-reversion? Entry conditions? Exit logic? System expectancy? Risk model? Entries Box breakout (bullish): Prefer consolidation at the top‑right of the box before break → higher probability. Zone‑to‑Zone: Look for a lower‑TF coil at a higher‑TF zone → break of coil for entry. Profit & Exits Next zone target; or Exit when an uptrend fails to make an HL (i.e., breaks prior swing low). Stops Box breakout: Below the first inner zone or box low. Zone‑to‑Zone: Based on the lower‑TF coil used for entry. Position Size = 4% per trade or less. 2.5 Trading the Boxes Four box archetypes: 9 SMA, 21 SMA, 50 SMA, and Base. Base Box More false starts; longest runs when it goes. Prefer equity or bull‑put spreads; ride while price > 50 SMA. 50 SMA Box The first 50‑box after a base is the most reliable. Daily 50‑box usually follows 3–4 weeks of coil; expect ≈1.5–2 weeks of trend leg. Tactics: Stock and swing options (expiry ≈ coil length or slightly more). 9 SMA Boxes Breakout leg ≈2–3 days, then another coil. Tactics: Scalps with 1–1.5 weeks to expiry; 1–2 OTM strikes. Quick Summary Base: most power, least timing precision. 50: first after base = best reliability; second is weaker. 9: short, sharp, tactical. 2.6 Overall Market Environment If indices trend up above the latest daily zone, 8/10 breakouts can succeed. If indices chop under the latest daily zone, expect ≈5/10 to work. Compare QQQ vs. SPY strength to gauge risk‑on/off. Rules of thumb Upside bias: Index above the latest daily zone (or proxy 9 SMA if approximating). Scalping bias: Above the latest hourly zone. 2.7 Box System & Long‑Term Investing (LTI) Markets are fractal; weekly = daily = hourly in pattern, not speed. Trend rule: in an uptrend, price should not break prior swing low (mirror for downtrend). Trailing stop logic Uptrend: trail to recent swing low once confirmed. Downtrend: trail to recent swing high. MA benchmarks: Hard breaks of 9 SMA → likely consolidation. 50 SMA for longer bias. Caveat: large‑cap growth rarely trends cleanly down (index dependency & fund flows). 2.8 Watchlist Creation Three steps Scan sectors for consolidations (boxes). Check relative strength vs. SPY (e.g., XLK/SPY). Review the top 10–20 holdings. Tiers A‑List: Box about to break + high options liquidity. B‑List: Box about to break but low options liquidity. C‑List: Boxes are still developing. 2.9 Role of the 21 SMA Acts as the inflection between 9 and 50. The highest failed‑break probability occurs at 21 boxes. After a 9‑trend ends, watch 21 for the reaction: Back to recent highs and breaks, or Failed break; or Reject at 9 after 21 reactions. 2.10 SPX Intraday Scalp Pattern Don’t chase the open; wait 1–2 hours for the market to form an intraday box (2–3 h coil). Enter as the range breaks: you benefit from direction and rising IV (“double whammy”). 2.11 SQUEEZE Pro Indicator (SQZPRO) Concept: A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands compress inside the Keltner Channels (BB inside KC) → energy building. Dot codes (suggested): Green: No squeeze Black: Mild squeeze (BB within 2 ATR KC) Red: Tight squeeze (BB within 1.5 ATR KC) Yellow: Very tight (best odds for expansion) Heuristic: The tighter the compression, the stronger the potential release. 2.12 Backtesting & Strategy Creation Use TradingView Replay. Segment by regime (bull, bear, or chop). Test entries, exits, and risk variants. Purpose: build statistical confidence to keep your “monkey brain” from hijacking. 2.13 QQQ vs SPY for Intraday SPY: S&P 500 (market‑cap weighted, broader economy). QQQ: NASDAQ‑100 ex‑financials (tech‑heavy, risk‑on). Scenarios Bullish clean: QQQ > SPY, and both above hourly 9. Bearish clean: QQQ < SPY, and both below hourly 9. Chop, green day: Market up but QQQ < SPY → grindy. Chop, red day: Market down and SPY < QQQ → grindy. Read strength: Compare % change vs prior close. 2.14 Gaps: What & Why Markets aren’t 24/7; exogenous events (earnings, geopolitics) reset expectations → open ≠ prior close. How to trade gaps Treat the gap range as support (gap‑up) or resistance (gap‑down); draw a gap box. Unfilled gaps are potent S/R. Above, a bullish gap favors continuation until filled. If the gap is huge, rely on historic zones to seed new levels within. 2.15 Scalps vs Swings Scalps: minutes–hours; TF ≤ 1h. Swings: days–weeks; TF ≥ 1h (prefer daily baseline). Drill down one TF for refined entries; manage to the anchor TF. Expiration (rules of thumb) Stocks (scalps): Mon/Tue → same‑week; Wed/Thu/Fri → next‑week. Indices (scalps): 1–2 DTE, 1–2 OTM. Swings: Expiry ≥ consolidation length (often 1–1.5× coil duration). 2.16 Which Timeframe Should You Trade? Real Trading Hours, 1-2 HR → Day trading & scalps (≤1h TF). After Hours, 1–2 hr → Swings (≥1 hr, ideally daily). Less than 1 HR → Multi‑week swings or LTI (weekly charts).