GBPUSD Technical Analysis: BoE wants a confirmation of disinflation improvement

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FundamentalOverviewThe USD has weakened prettymuch across the board last week despite a strong US ADP and ISM Services PMI. As mentioned previously, whenmarkets react like that it’s generally a signal of a short-term top with themarket needing more to keep the trend going. In fact, the market pricingis now showing a 63% probability of a December cut, which is about right. TheNFP and CPI reports will have the final say, and hopefully we will get thembefore the next FOMC decision.On the GBP side, the BoEheld the Bank Rate steady with a 5-4 vote split as BoE’s Breeden joined thedoves and voted to cut rates by 25 bps. The first reaction was dovish as prettymuch everything suggested that a rate cut in December was almost a sure thing. In the press conferencethough, BoE Governor Bailey sounded like a December cut was conditional on aconfirmation of the improvement in inflation. The BoE will get two employmentand inflation reports before the next meeting, so they will have enough data tomake a better decision. The market is currently pricing a 57% chance of a ratecut in December. GBPUSDTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that GBPUSD pulled all the way back to the key 1.3140 level, with the priceeventually breaking above it. This is where the buyers are expected to increasethe bullish bets into the major trendline around the 1.3250 level. The sellers,on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 1.3140level to pile in for a drop into new lows or alternatively, wait for the priceto come into the trendline to short with a better risk to reward setup.GBPUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. Thebuyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into newhighs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting newlows.GBPUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much else we can add here as the buyers will look for longs around thetrendline and the 1.3140 level, while the sellers will want to see the pricebreaking lower to pile in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front. Tomorrow, we have the UK employmentreport and the weekly US ADP data, while on Thursday we get the UK GDP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.