13/11/25 Still No Bounce, Will Bears Get Another Leg Down?Crude Palm Oil FuturesMYX:FCPO1!Tech_Trader88Yesterday’s candlestick (Wednesday, Nov 12) was an inside bear bar closing in its lower half. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the bulls could produce more decent bull bars in the days ahead, or if the pullback phase continues to be sideways. The market continues to trade sideways as the bulls have not yet been able to create a decent pullback. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low. They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Oct 23, Oct 29, and Nov 6). If the market trades lower, they want the recent sideways consolidation to be the final flag of the move. They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. The problem with the bull's case is that they haven't been able to create strong bull bars to show control. They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars, clearly breaking above the bear trend line and closing above the 20-day EMA. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, showing strong bears and persistent selling pressure. The first pullback will likely be minor, followed by at least a small sideways-to-down leg retesting the Nov 6 low. If the market trades higher, the bears want it to stall around 4200 or the 20-day EMA, followed by another leg down. Fundamentals • Production: SPPOMA down 2% in the first 10 days. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures. • Exports: ITS is down 12.28% in the first 10 days. Overall, the market broke out from an 11-week trading range in a persistent, tight bear channel — evidence of strong selling momentum. The market remains Always-In-Short. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline. The bulls need to do more to show they are at least temporarily back in control by creating consecutive strong bull bars. Otherwise, traders will not be willing to buy aggressively. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor. If the pullback continues to be sideways and the bulls fail to create strong bull bars, the odds of another leg down will increase. For today (Thursday, Nov 13), traders will watch whether the bears will attempt to create another leg down, or if the market will continue to consolidate sideways. Andrew