Brazilian Real Strength Sparks Short Covering in NY Sugar Futures

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today, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers and sparking short covering in NY sugar futures.Coffee Prices Supported as Global Supplies DeclineCocoa Prices Settle Higher on Smaller Ivory Coast Cocoa DeliveriesCoffee Prices Supported by Tighter Global SuppliesMarkets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines.The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has hammered sugar prices over the past month.  On Monday, London sugar posted a new 4.75-year nearest-futures low, and last Thursday, NY sugar prices slumped to a 5-year nearest-futures low, mainly due to higher sugar output in Brazil and talk of a global sugar surplus.  Last Wednesday, sugar trader Czarnikow boosted its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of 7.5 MMT. The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices.  Last Tuesday, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT.  Last Thursday, Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT.  Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills in the first half of October increased to 48.24% from 47.33% the same time last year.  In addition, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.  In related news, Datagro on October 21 projected that Brazil's Center-South 2026/27 sugar production will climb +3.9% y/y to a record 44 MMT. Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, the world's second-largest producer, are undercutting prices after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop.  On September 30, India's Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years.  On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage.  That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India's sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). 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