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Instead, they’re the product of a global tug-of-war among producers, traders, and policymakers. It’s a market defined not just by physics, but by psychology, where the actions of a few key players can ripple across the world in a matter of hours.On November 2nd, OPEC+ announced a modest 137,000 barrel-per-day production increase for December, followed by a pause on further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The move surprised many analysts who expected continued restraint. On the surface, boosting supply when prices are already under pressure seems counterintuitive. But this is not a move driven by near-term pricing. It’s a move about market share and about power.As Morningstar aptly summarized, “defending market share now outweighs defending prices.” That’s a telling statement, and it signals a familiar shift in strategy among major producers. We’ve seen this playbook before—in 2014 and again in 2020—when Saudi Arabia and Russia opened the taps to undercut higher-cost rivals, particularly U.S. shale producers.Those episodes triggered sharp price declines, but OPEC+ was trying to reassert dominance in a market that had become increasingly influenced by American production growth. The strategy largely failed in 2014 (see OPEC’s Trillion Dollar Miscalculation), but it did squeeze out some overleveraged shale producers.At first glance, it seems self-defeating for OPEC+ to intentionally push prices lower. But history shows that short-term pain can yield long-term control. By tolerating lower prices for a period, OPEC+ can squeeze out marginal producers whose break-even costs are higher. Once those players scale back, the cartel can tighten supply again and reclaim pricing power.This latest production increase comes at a time when U.S. output is at record levels, surpassing 13.7 million barrels per day. That resurgence reflects the flexibility of American shale—producers can ramp up quickly when prices rise and idle rigs just as fast when prices drop. This “elastic” supply has turned the United States into the de facto swing producer of the world.However, that elasticity comes at a cost. Unlike OPEC+, which can coordinate cuts through collective agreements, U.S. producers act independently. When dozens of companies all respond to higher prices by drilling more wells, the collective impact is oversupply. 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