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As Arm-based CPUs transition from Nvidia's GB200 to Google's Axion and Microsoft's Cobalt, data-center revenue is growing by around 2 times year over year.At the same time, Mix is doing actual work: dollars per core increase from approximately $0.50 to $1.50 on CSS sales, while core counts increase from 72 to 128+. This is a simple multiplier that can increase royalties per socket, even if unit growth stops.But the fine print is important for the stock.SoftBank, which owns most of Arm, is now anticipated to provide around $178 million every three months, which is over 16% of all sales. Without the extra boost from linked parties, BofA says management's FY26 projection would have missed the mark.Opex is increasing to pursue its greater potential, and that tension sets up the following part.As GB200, Axion, and Cobalt grow, ex-SoftBank licensing will continue to increase, and CSS will continue to push the $/core up.This will enable the market to pay a higher multiple for Arm's "AI tollbooth." If not, dependency on the parent and the risk of overspending now might limit the upside, regardless of how promising the data center appears.AI royalties boost BofA's optimism for Arm, despite SoftBank's rising sales share.ShutterstockThe data center is giving Arm a lot of short-term impetus. In the September quarter, sales there were nearly four times higher than they were in the same quarter last year.It's simple to understand why: Hyperscalers are replacing x86 CPUs with their own Arm CPUs (Google Axion, Microsoft Cobalt), and Nvidia's GB200 ramp is making it possible to add more Arm cores to the rack.More Tech Stocks:As Palantir rolls on, rivals are worth a second lookNvidia’s next big thing could be flying carsCathie Wood sells $21.4 million of surging AI stocksThe change in mix is just as essential as the number of units going up. For CSS-style transactions, BofA claimed that pricing per core are going up from around $0.50 to $1.50 or more, and the number of cores per CPU is going up from 72 to 128 or more.That's a basic story about the material. Before you install more sockets, each one is worth more to Arm.Quick royalty math (illustrative):Legacy scenario: ~72 cores × $0.50 = $36 royalty content per CPUNew mix scenario: ~128 cores × $1.50 = $192 royalty content per CPUThat little increase shows how royalties may mount up without making huge guesses about how many servers will be sent. It also explains why Arm may grow faster than end-market units, even if it is still careful about which customers move to CSS and higher-rate v9 IP.Related: Qualcomm earned $215 target from BofA: Here’s what could derail itThe pipeline makes you stronger. BofA says that further Stargate announcements and new chiplet/silicon co-design options, maybe along an OpenAI/AVGO road, may make Arm's market 4 to 5 times bigger.If Arm transitions from a neutral IP licensor to co-designing crucial CPUs and accelerators, the dynamics of the $/core and take-rate will change a lot.The problem is that it costs money to accomplish it. Today, the expenses of operating the firm are going up in order to set up those future sources of royalties.That's normal for a platform transfer, but adds the challenge of keeping up with delivery and makes it more vital to keep the multiple going by growing cleanly, without involving other parties.This is the issue with the bull case: As Arm's AI story gets more attention, SoftBank's role in it grows as well.BofA claimed the connected parties bring in around $178 million in sales per quarter. This means that SoftBank's share of total sales is about 16%.Arm's sales prediction for FY26 of roughly $4.83 billion is just a little higher than the prior estimate of about $4.75 billion. Arm would have missed by around $70 million without the additional help from SoftBank.Why does this matter to many investors? They are ready to pay more for royalty streams that endure and are different.When a parent company becomes a big customer, it raises two issues with optics. First, the tale of "circular financing": Does the buyer's wallet depend on the same ecosystem that makes money from the stock price? Second, what about the quality of the revenue?If the stream slows down or prices go up, will the ex-SoftBank licenses be able to expand rapidly enough to keep pace with growth?Related: One line in the OpenAI pact could supercharge Microsoft’s AI revenueNone of this prevents the AI flywheel from turning. Licensing is never perfect, but Arm's partnerships with Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft prove that there is a lot of demand for v9/CSS and custom hardware.Yet having more connected parties makes things more difficult. The market has to be sure that the next stage of development will come from third-party customers paying more per core, not from the parent's checkbook.This is particularly true, given that opex is going up to fulfill chiplet/CSS targets.Ex-SoftBank license growth: Clear split in disclosures and call color demonstrating that third-party contracts are carrying the guidance.$/core and CSS penetration: Newer offers seem more likely to be in the $1.50+ range.Data center royalty cadence: The GB200/Axion/Cobalt volume signals that lead to a steady royalty run-rate, not just one-time payments.Opex discipline: The path of operating leverage as new initiatives grow.BofA's $205 target basically tells investors that they should be content with paying around 79 times Arm's CY27 EPS for the firm to move to higher data-center royalties.That may work, but only if the mix does more than simply make it louder. The market wants to hear a straightforward story: v9 and CSS agreements drive realized dollars-per-core toward the upper band, core counts keep going up, and these two things turn into steadier, less lumpy royalties as GB200, Google's Axion, and Microsoft's Cobalt rise through 2026.It's just as easy to figure out what would hurt the premium. If sales to connected parties stay in the mid-teens of total revenue and third-party licensing doesn't go up, the quality-of-growth discussion will stop repeated expansion.At this pricing, time would also be more crucial, whether it's because of hyperscaler pushouts or slower CSS transformations. Any hint that the take rates are lower than projected would also be a clue.The cost line is the second thing that makes the swing. Investors will put up with the present rise in operating costs to witness chiplet and co-design victories, but they will expect operational leverage to show up when programs switch from design fees to royalty collection.Arm doesn't need AI headlines to be louder to safeguard 79x; it needs growth that is more consistent, in other words.If the prediction is based on ex-SoftBank licensing, take rates increase and opex growth slows down. This might drive EPS up into BofA's 15% to 20% glide path, and the multiple has capacity to grow.If those proof points go down, the market will lower the value of Arm cores long before people cease desiring them.Related: Samsung’s craziest phone yet might skip the US, and that mattersThis story was originally reported by TheStreet on Nov 10, 2025, where it first appeared in the Economy section. 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