DAVID PIERSON2025年11月12日本月，特朗普总统与第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普共同观摩了海军力量演示。特朗普始终支持国防部长皮特·海格塞斯，后者已解雇十余名军方领导人，其中不乏有色人种和女性。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesChina’s nuclear forces are expanding quickly. Yet behind that rise, the top leader Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of generals and military leaders has exposed deep-seated corruption and raised questions about the country’s ability to manage its growing arsenal.中国的核力量正在迅速扩张。然而，在这股上升势头背后，最高领导人习近平对将领和军事领导人的大规模清洗暴露了根深蒂固的腐败问题，并令人们质疑中国能否有效管理日益扩大的核武库。The uncertainty adds to concerns about a new era of volatility in global nuclear politics, as President Trump has called for renewed U.S. testing and as Washington is also pushing through major changes in its military.这种不确定性加剧了人们对全球核政治动荡新时代的担忧，如今特朗普总统已呼吁美国重新进行核试验，华盛顿也在推动其军队的重大改革。President Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has fired or sidelined at least two dozen generals and admirals over the past nine months, actions that are without precedent in recent decades, and have come with little explanation. The shake-up has raised fears of growing political interference in a military that has long prided itself on being apolitical.在华盛顿，特朗普总统的国防部长皮特·海格赛斯在过去九个月里撤换或边缘化了至少20多名陆军和海军上将，而且几乎没有任何解释，这样的行动在近几十年来是没有前例的。这些人事变动引发了人们的担忧——长期以来一直以不涉及政治而自豪的军方受到越来越多的政治干预。9月在弗吉尼亚州匡蒂科，国防部长皮特·黑格塞斯在台下听特朗普的演讲。In Beijing, Mr. Xi’s purges in the People’s Liberation Army cut far deeper. He has carried out a cleanup that has shaken the Rocket Force, the branch that oversees China’s nuclear forces and is a crucial part of Mr. Xi’s ambition to build a “world-class military” by 2049. Top commanders have disappeared. Others have been jailed. And defense contractors have been stripped of their party titles and detained for investigation.在北京，习近平在解放军内部的清洗行动更为深入。他主导的整肃震动了火箭军——这个掌管中国核力量的军种，也是习近平实现2049年建成“世界一流军队”目标的关键支柱。一些高级将领消失。有的被判入狱。国防承包商被开除党籍、被拘留接受调查。While Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth’s motivations in reshaping the U.S. military are not entirely clear, Mr. Xi’s purges stem from a lesson he has drawn from history: that the Communist Party survives only when the army obeys one leader without question.特朗普和海格赛斯重塑美军的动机尚不完全明确，但习近平的清洗行动源于他从历史中汲取的教训：只有军队绝对服从一位领导者，共产党才能生存下去。Early in his rule, Mr. Xi warned that the Soviet Union collapsed because the party lost control of its military and no “real man” had stepped forward, noted Joseph Torigian, an associate professor at American University who has studied Chinese leaders’ relations with the military.美利坚大学副教授唐志学(Joseph Torigian)指出，习近平执政初期曾发出警告：苏联解体源于共产党失去对军队的控制，且“竟无一人是男儿”，没有人挺身而出。唐志学长期研究中国领导人与军队的关系。His military purges likely reflect his obsession with preparing for worst-case scenarios at home and abroad, whether it is protests over economic problems or political suppression, or needing to fight the United States in a war over Taiwan, the democratically governed island Beijing claims as its territory.他的军队清洗很可能反映出他对国内外最坏局面的执着准备——无论是经济问题引发的抗议、政治镇压需求，还是为争夺台湾而与美国开战的可能。北京声称这个实行民主治理的岛屿是其领土。“So what’s the biggest threat to building a military that can defeat competitors within the elite, people in the streets, and the Americans in a war?” Mr. Torigian wrote in an email. “Corruption is the ‘key link.’”“那么，要建立一支能够击败精英阶层的对手、街头民众和战争中美国人的军队，最大的威胁是什么呢？”唐志学在电子邮件中写道。“腐败是‘关键环节’。”Mr. Xi thinks materialism and corruption are a direct threat to the military’s ability to defeat enemies, Mr. Torigian said. “In Xi’s mind, it makes members of the military vulnerable to Western infiltration, whether literally in terms of becoming an agent, or because Western values lead to a desire to ‘nationalize’ the military and split it from party control.”唐志学指出，习近平认为物质主义和腐败直接威胁着军队战胜敌人的能力。“在习近平看来，这使军人容易受到西方渗透——无论是字面意义上的成为间谍，还是因西方价值观引发‘军队国家化’诉求而脱离党的控制。”In a commentary on Tuesday, the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army wrote: “For our military, the fight against corruption is a major political struggle that it cannot afford to lose, and must not lose. It concerns the long-term stability of the party and the country, and it concerns ensuring the socialist red state never changes color.”在发表于周二的一篇评论中，《解放军报》写道：“对我军来说，反腐败斗争是一场输不起也决不能输的重大政治斗争，关系党和国家长治久安，关系社会主义红色江山永不变色。”That also highlights a major difference between the functions of the militaries in both countries: In China, the military is built to defend the ruling party, primarily; in the United States, it is meant to defend the entire nation and to stand apart from politics.这也凸显了两国军队职能的重大区别：在中国，军队是为保卫执政党而建立的；在美国，军队是为了保卫整个国家，并需与政治保持距离。The ousters in China reveal serious dysfunction in the military and muddy confidence in its war readiness. It also suggests that the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., may be one of the few organizations that Mr. Xi, arguably China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, has failed to bring under his control.中国军队的清洗行动暴露了军队内部严重的功能失调，并使人对其战备状态产生疑虑。这也表明，中国人民解放军可能是习近平——这位堪称毛泽东以来中国最有权势的领导人——未能掌控的少数组织之一。“Corruption has been a very real problem for the P.L.A., and it is, in fact, corrosive for the military, which is why Xi is serious about uprooting it,” said Jonathan Czin, a researcher at the Brookings Institution who previously worked at the C.I.A. analyzing Chinese politics.布鲁金斯学会研究员秦江南(Jonathan Czin)指出：“腐败问题在解放军中确实存在，且正在腐蚀军队，这正是习近平决心根除腐败的原因。”秦江南曾任职于中央情报局，负责分析中国政治事务。9月，中国举行阅兵式，展示其日益增强的实力。中国人民解放军肩负着保卫和维护中国共产党的使命。When Mr. Xi came to power in 2012, the Chinese military was plagued with an image problem as a hotbed of corruption. Senior commanders funded lavish lifestyles through bribery and embezzlement. Promotions were commonly up for sale. And military license plates were sold to civilians as they gave their owners near impunity on China’s roads.2012年习近平开始执政时，中国军队深陷腐败温床的形象危机。高级指挥官通过受贿贪污维持奢靡生活，军衔晋升普遍存在买卖现象，军用车牌更被转售平民——这些车牌让车主可以享受几乎不受道路执法约束的特殊待遇。Mr. Xi vowed to professionalize the P.L.A. and ensure that it answered to him as head of the party; he quickly removed rival factions led by commanders that were loyal to past leaders. A decade later, the house cleaning has only intensified, even ensnaring senior leaders who were handpicked by Mr. Xi. That includes Gen. He Weidong, who was third in China’s military hierarchy when he was expelled from the party on Oct. 17, accused of corruption and abuse of power.习近平誓言要使解放军专业化，并确保军队听命于身为党的最高领导人的他；他迅速清除了由效忠前任领导人的指挥官领导的派系。十年后，这场内部整顿愈演愈烈，甚至牵连到习近平亲自提拔的高层将领。其中包括何卫东上将——这位曾位居中国军方第三把交椅的将领于10月17日被指控贪腐和滥用职权，遭开除党籍。Other expelled generals included Adm. Miao Hua, who oversaw political discipline in the military and was placed under investigation last year. Another was Gen. Lin Xiangyang, who was in charge of the Eastern Theater Command, which is central to any war over Taiwan.其他被开除的将领还包括负责军队政治纪律的苗华上将，他于去年接受调查。另一位是林向阳上将，他负责东部战区司令部，该战区是任何针对台湾的战争的核心。Perhaps most troubling for Mr. Xi are the signs of corruption in the rocket force, which controls nearly all of China’s nuclear missiles and had been considered one of the crown jewels of the Chinese military. Since 2023, the branch has been rocked by a series of purges of senior commanders over corruption that have raised questions about its effectiveness. A Pentagon report last year said fraud in the rocket force led to problems involving the construction of underground missile silos.对习近平而言，火箭军腐败迹象或许最令人忧心。该军种掌控中国几乎所有核导弹，被视为中国军队“皇冠上的明珠”。自2023年以来，火箭军一直受到一系列高级指挥官腐败整肃的震动，这引发了对其作战效能的质疑。五角大楼去年的一份报告称，火箭军的贪腐行为导致了涉及地下导弹发射井建设的问题。新型DF-5C战略核导弹于9月在北京天安门广场的阅兵式上首次亮相。Analysts say the branch is ripe for corruption because it maintains one of the largest budgets in the Chinese military. Unlike warplanes and tanks, missiles are also rarely tested, increasing the difficulty in detecting malfeasance.分析人士表示，火箭军极易滋生腐败，因为它掌握着中国军队中数一数二的预算。与战机和坦克不同，导弹也很少进行测试，这增加了发现渎职行为的难度。Some analysts say corruption in the rocket force may also be fueled by skepticism that China will ever go to war. Were there a greater sense of urgency, they argue, there would probably be less chance that defense contractors would cut corners and military leaders would line their pockets. 一些分析人士说，火箭军的腐败也可能是源于对中国是否会走向战争的怀疑。他们认为，如果有更强烈的紧迫感，国防承包商偷工减料和军方领导人中饱私囊的可能性可能就会降低。At the same time, China’s military modernization has been advancing apace. A military parade in Beijing earlier this year showed off some of the country’s latest drones, unmanned submarines and hypersonic missiles. Also displayed were the latest ICBMs, a reminder of China’s nuclear weapons buildup that could see the country nearly double its arsenal by 2030.与此同时，中国的军事现代化建设也在快速推进。今年早些时候在北京举行的阅兵式上，展示了中国一些最新的无人机、无人潜航器和高超音速导弹。同时亮相的还有最新的洲际弹道导弹，展现了中国的核武器建设，到2030年，中国的核武库可能会增加近一倍。一架中国军用无人作战飞行器亮相9月的阅兵式。Even though both the American and Chinese militaries are undergoing high-level leadership changes, they each still have deep benches of senior officers to draw from, said Mr. Czin of Brookings.布鲁金斯学会的秦江南说，尽管中美两国军队都在经历高层领导的更迭，但两国均拥有深厚的军官储备。The question, though, is whether their leaders’ preoccupations are eroding focus on core missions: China’s drive to take Taiwan, and America’s effort to deter it.但问题是，两国领导层目前的关注焦点是否会削弱对中国夺取台湾的努力，以及美国对其遏制努力这一核心任务的重视。Mr. Xi regards the United States as the chief obstacle in realizing his goal of unifying Taiwan with China. American intelligence officials have said that Mr. Xi has ordered that the Chinese military be capable of seizing the self-governed island by 2027, which will be the 100th anniversary of the founding of the P.L.A.习近平将美国视为实现台湾统一目标的主要障碍。美国情报官员透露，习近平已下令，要求中国军队在2027年——即解放军建军百年之际——具备夺取该自治岛屿的能力。The rocket force plays prominently in those plans. China has developed anti-ship missiles, known as “carrier killers,” aimed at blocking U.S. aircraft carrier groups from the battle zone in a conflict over Taiwan. It has also built hypersonic missiles designed to strike U.S. bases across the Pacific, including in Guam, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan.火箭军在这些计划中占有重要地位。中国研发了被称为“航母杀手”的反舰导弹，以求在台湾冲突中阻断美军航母编队进入战场。同时还建造了可打击关岛、菲律宾、韩国和日本等太平洋沿岸美军基地的高超音速导弹。A bipartisan, congressionally appointed commission warned last year that China was surpassing the United States in military advantage in the Western Pacific because of two decades of focused investment. “Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor,” the Commission on the National Defense Strategy said.一个由国会任命的两党委员会去年警告说，由于20年来的集中投资，中国在西太平洋正对美国建立军事优势。“如果美国不做出重大改变，力量平衡将继续向有利于中国的方向倾斜，”国防战略委员会表示。For China, however, countering the U.S. military is the “first, second and third priority,” Mr. Czin said.而对于中国来说，对抗美军是“第一、第二和第三优先事项”，秦江南说。储百亮(Chris Buckley)自台湾台北对本文有报道贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。