How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

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Rate cuts by year-endFed: 12 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)2026: 81 bpsECB: 1 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 7 bpsBoE: 19 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 56 bpsBoC: 3 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 8 bpsRBA: 2 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 12 bpsRBNZ: 25 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 40 bpsSNB: 1 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 7 bpsRate hikes by year-endBoJ: 6 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)2026: 38 bps*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.The most notable repricings happened on the BoE, RBA and the Fed side. Starting with the BoE, traders increased the December rate cut bets following the soft employment report on Tuesday. On Thursday, we got a very strong Australian employment report, which didn't really change much for the RBA, but it solidified expectations for a longer pause nonetheless. Lastly, the probabilities for a December cut from the Fed have been hovering above 60% until Fed's Collins (who is a voter this year) on Wednesday said that it would be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time. It's curious though that the market didn't really react much to her comments until the day after, which is when we started to see odds for a December cut dwindle and risk assets selling off. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.