中亚五国领导人做客白宫,寻求对冲中俄影响力

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ANTON TROIANOVSKI, PAUL SONNE, ANA SWANSON2025年11月10日哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫与其他中亚国家领导人周四在白宫。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesIn Western Europe and East Asia, President Trump’s foreign policy has fed fears of political turmoil and financial pain among America’s traditional allies.在西欧和东亚,特朗普总统的外交政策滋长了美国传统盟友对政治动荡和经济痛苦的担忧。But to a swath of mostly authoritarian countries in between, Mr. Trump’s role looks different. In Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia, countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union are reaping the benefits of newfound attention from Washington.但对介于其间的众多威权国家而言,特朗普所扮演的角色看上去却大为不同。在白俄罗斯以及高加索和中亚地区,这些前苏国家正因获得华盛顿前所未有的关注而获益。That attention was on display on Thursday evening as Mr. Trump became the first president to host the leaders of all five Central Asian countries at the White House. It was a striking tableau, both because of long-running human-rights concerns and because the region’s power players are American adversaries: Russia and China.这种关注在上周四晚间展现得尤为明显——特朗普成为首位在白宫同时接待所有五个中亚国家领导人的美国总统。这个会晤场面之所以令人瞩目,不仅是因为该地区长期存在的人权问题,也因为那里的地缘政治主导者是美国的对手:俄罗斯与中国。Mr. Trump has changed the equation. His outreach to Moscow, and now his easing of tensions with Beijing, have made it easier for countries that are close to Russia and China to build ties with the United States. And those countries are embracing the opportunity, partly because a closer relationship with Washington is giving them leverage in dealing with Moscow and Beijing.特朗普改变了这一格局。他先是与莫斯科接触,如今又缓和了与北京的紧张关系,这使得那些与俄中关系密切的国家更容易与美国建立联系。而这些国家也在抓住这个机会,部分原因是与华盛顿拉近关系能增强它们在与俄中打交道时的筹码。Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, told The New York Times in an interview before his White House visit on Thursday that “the United States of America has the right to be properly present” in his country. He praised Mr. Trump’s trade truce with China as well as his engagement with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫在上周四访问白宫前接受《纽约时报》采访时表示:“美利坚合众国理应在我们国家建立合理的存在。”他称赞了特朗普与中国达成的贸易休战协议,及其与俄罗斯总统普京的接触。“It’s crucial for major powers to find common ground with one another,” Mr. Tokayev said. “That’s why I was pleased, one might say, with the deal between China and the United States.”“大国之间寻求共识至关重要,”托卡耶夫指出,“这就是为什么可以说,我对中美之间的协议是深感欣慰的。”In Central Asia, the most influential geopolitical player remains Russia, which still considers the region as part of its rightful sphere of influence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reverberated across the region, where governments have struggled to avoid aligning themselves with Mr. Putin’s war while maintaining political and economic ties with Moscow.在中亚地区最具影响力的地缘政治角色仍是俄罗斯,它始终视那里为其理所当然的势力范围。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的举动在整个区域引发震荡,各国政府不得不在维持与莫斯科的政经联系的同时竭力避免公开支持普京的战争。Gerard Toal, a professor of government and international affairs at Virginia Tech, said the leaders of the former Soviet republics who were improving relations with Mr. Trump knew they would never get away from Moscow’s hegemonic power. But they are seeking “multiple options,” he said, and are trying to show the Kremlin they have power to maneuver.弗吉尼亚理工大学政府与国际事务教授杰拉德·托尔表示,那些正在改善与特朗普关系的前苏加盟共和国领导人知道,他们永远无法摆脱莫斯科的霸权力量。但他们正在寻求“多种选项”,并试图向克里姆林宫展示他们具备一定的周旋空间。“Even in just going to the White House, you are signaling to the Kremlin you have independent agency,” Mr. Toal said.“仅仅是踏进白宫这一举动本身就在向克里姆林宫传递我们具有独立行动能力的信号,”托尔指出。The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan arrived at the White House in August to sign a peace pledge to end a long and bloody conflict. It was a demonstration of Russia’s loss of influence in a region where the Kremlin had previously tried to play the role of peacemaker.今年8月,亚美尼亚与阿塞拜疆领导人抵达白宫,签署了结束长期血腥冲突的和平宣言。这标志着俄罗斯在该地区影响力的衰退——克里姆林宫昔日曾试图在这里扮演调停者角色。In the process, the leaders gave the United States exclusive development rights over a transit corridor that would connect two parts of Azerbaijan through Armenian territory, naming it the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.在这一过程中,两国领导人将一条穿过亚美尼亚领土、连接阿塞拜疆两部分的交通走廊的独家开发权交给了美国,并将其命名为“特朗普国际和平与繁荣之路”。Even Belarus, Russia’s closest international ally, has overcome its international pariah status to build ties with the Trump administration. The White House has turned to Belarus’s authoritarian ruler, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, as a back channel in negotiations with Moscow.就连俄罗斯最紧密的国际盟友白俄罗斯也打破外交孤立,与特朗普政府建立起联系。白宫已将白俄罗斯的威权统治者卢卡申科视为与莫斯科谈判的秘密渠道。In exchange for sanctions relief, the Belarusian leader has released dozens of political prisoners at the request of the Trump administration. The Belarusian human rights group Viasna said that 1,242 political prisoners remained jailed in Belarus as of last month.为换取制裁解除,这位白俄罗斯领导人应特朗普政府要求释放了数十名政治犯。但据白俄罗斯人权组织"维亚斯纳"统计,截至上月该国仍关押着1242名政治犯。Mr. Trump’s gathering on Thursday advanced an effort that began under President Barack Obama to hold joint meetings with the five Central Asian countries. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. held the inaugural U.S. summit with the countries’ leaders in 2023, promising both to advance human rights and help develop the region’s “vast mineral wealth.”特朗普上周四的这场会晤延续了奥巴马总统时期开启的中亚五国联合对话机制。拜登总统曾在2023年与五国领导人举行首次美国峰会,承诺推进人权事业,同时协助开发该地区“巨大的矿产资源”。Mr. Trump has dropped the human rights concerns and magnified the focus on deal-making.特朗普则抛开了人权关切,把焦点进一步集中在交易的达成上。For Central Asian leaders, “it’s much more comfortable to deal with Trump,” said Temur Umarov, an analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank in Berlin. “You can do business — and only business — with him.”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚研究中心分析师泰穆尔·乌马罗夫表示,对中亚领导人而言,“与特朗普打交道要轻松得多。你可以和他谈生意——而且只谈生意。”At a deal-making event held in a sunny room at the Kennedy Center on Thursday afternoon, government officials and industry executives from the United States and Central Asia mingled to the sound of smooth jazz and waited for their turn to climb onstage and shake hands with Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce.上周四下午,在肯尼迪表演艺术中心一间阳光充沛的房间里,美国和中亚国家的政府官员与行业高管们伴着轻柔爵士乐寒暄,等候登台与商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克握手。In brief remarks, Mr. Lutnick held out the promise of sales of Nvidia artificial intelligence chips, airplanes and other technology, and welcomed Central Asian initiatives focused on energy diversification and logistics. He said America was “open for business,” including for sales to allies of the best semiconductors, which, he added, was “a complete change from the prior Biden administration.”卢特尼克在简短致辞中承诺将向中亚出口英伟达人工智能芯片、飞机及其他技术,并对中亚国家推动能源多元化和物流发展的举措表示欢迎。他宣称美国“正敞开商业大门”,包括向盟友出售最先进的半导体,并强调这“与往届拜登政府的政策截然不同”。“The U.S. economy is on fire,” Mr. Lutnick said. “You can feel it.”“美国经济正蓬勃发展,”卢特尼克表示,“炙手可热。”Airlines from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan committed to purchase dozens of Boeing airplanes, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan promised to buy billions of dollars in agricultural machinery from John Deere. Kyrgyzstan said it would purchase American rail construction and engineering services. Kazakhstan also said it would procure up to $2 billion in A.I. chips in a partnership with OpenAI and Nvidia. It’s unclear how many of the deals were newly signed and how many had been previously negotiated.来自哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的航空公司承诺购买数十架波音飞机;哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦承诺从约翰迪尔公司购买数十亿美元的农业机械。吉尔吉斯斯坦表示将购买美国的铁路建设和工程服务。哈萨克斯坦还称将与OpenAI和英伟达合作,采购高达20亿美元的人工智能芯片。目前尚不清楚哪些交易是新签署的,哪些是以往磋商的成果。One senior Central Asian official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said their country was heartened by Mr. Lutnick’s personal involvement. While the Biden administration had focused on “B2B” — business-to-business — negotiations, the official said, “now we’ve started to trade on the level of G2G” — government-to-government.一位因未获授权而要求匿名的中亚高级官员透露,他的国家因卢特尼克的亲自参与深受鼓舞。他指出,拜登政府此前主要推动“企业对企业”的谈判,而“现在我们已开启政府间的经贸合作”。Cove Capital, a mining-focused firm based in New York and Australia, thanked Mr. Lutnick on Thursday for his “unwavering support” in securing a deal for the company to help develop a huge Kazakh deposit of tungsten, a wear-resistant metal important for weapons manufacturing.总部位于纽约和澳大利亚的矿业公司Cove Capital上周四特别感谢卢特尼克在促成哈萨克斯坦巨型钨矿开发项目中的“坚定支持”。钨是一种耐磨金属,对武器制造非常重要。Mr. Tokayev, the Kazakh president, said he had personally approved the tungsten deal. He praised the Trump administration for its “efficiency and pragmatism.”哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫表示,这项钨矿协议是他亲自批准的。他称赞特朗普政府“高效务实”。Mr. Trump, in turn, lauded Mr. Tokayev in September for a $4 billion agreement with a U.S. company to buy 300 locomotives. And he praised the president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, for what he said was an $8 billion deal by the country’s national airline to buy as many as 22 Boeing Dreamliner jets.特朗普则在9月赞扬了托卡耶夫,因为哈萨克斯坦与一家美国公司达成了以40亿美元购买300台火车头的协议。他也对乌兹别克斯坦总统米尔济约耶夫表示了赞赏,该国国家航空公司将以80亿美元订购22架波音梦想客机。Luke Coffey, an analyst at the Hudson Institute who has encouraged the Trump administration to pursue closer ties with Central Asia, said in an interview that the United States and Central Asian countries were finding common ground because of “the transactionalism that Trump prefers and that the leaders in this region prefer.”哈德逊研究所研究员卢克·科菲一直鼓励特朗普政府与中亚建立更紧密关系。他在采访中表示,美国和中亚国家之所以能找到共同点,是因为“特朗普偏好的那种交易式方式,正好也是该地区领导人所偏好的”。Indeed, there was no mention in the public elements of the Central Asia summit of what activists say are persistent — and in some cases, growing — human rights concerns across the region. Before this week’s event, Turkmenistan, an authoritarian nation that the democracy-focused nonprofit Freedom House ranks below North Korea and Sudan in its “Freedom in the World” index measuring civil rights and political liberties, had not had a leader visit the White House since 1998.的确,此次中亚峰会的公开议程中,没有提及活动人士所称的该地区持续存在、甚至在部分国家日趋恶化的人权问题。在峰会之前,土库曼斯坦这个威权国家的领导人自1998年以来从未造访过白宫。在非营利组织自由之家的“全球自由度”指数中,土库曼斯坦在公民权利和政治自由方面的评分甚至低于朝鲜和苏丹。Last week, the Kazakh Parliament moved forward with a bill that would punish what it called “L.G.B.T. propaganda” with as many as 10 days in prison, mirroring similar laws in Russia. Mr. Tokayev, in the interview on Thursday, said the Kazakh government had “nothing to do” with the bill, describing it as a grass-roots initiative. He added that while people should not be punished for being gay, “it would also be wrong to instill these values, especially among children.”上周,哈萨克斯坦议会推进了一项法案,将所谓“LGBT宣传”视为违法行为,最多可处以10天监禁,这与俄罗斯的类似法律如出一辙。托卡耶夫在上周四的采访中表示,哈萨克斯坦政府“与这项法案无关”,称其是一项民间自发倡议。他补充说,人们不应因为同性恋身份而受到惩罚,但“向人们灌输这些价值观,尤其是对儿童,是错误的”。Mr. Tokayev previously praised what he called Mr. Trump’s efforts to “restore traditional moral values.” Sitting across from Mr. Trump at the White House on Thursday, he went further: The U.S. president “inspires me,” he said, to pursue a “law and order” strategy in Kazakhstan.托卡耶夫此前曾公开赞赏其所谓特朗普“重振传统道德价值观”的努力。上周四在白宫与特朗普相对而坐时,他更进一步表示:美国总统“激励了我”在哈萨克斯坦推行“法律与秩序”的治国策略。Anton Troianovski是《纽约时报》莫斯科分社社长。他报道关于俄罗斯、东欧、高加索和中亚地区的新闻。Paul Sonne是一名国际新闻记者,报道俄罗斯新闻和普京的国内和国际政策产生的一系列影响,主要关注乌克兰战争。Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻,常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。