Is This Ohio-Based Company Poised for Market Gains in AI/Data Center Infrastructure?

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better than Vertiv ›There's no disputing that data center infrastructure company Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) is a great company, and it's definitely set for growth as artificial intelligence (AI)-driven investment in data centers shows no sign of slowing down. As such, investors in the Ohio-based company can have reasonable confidence that Vertiv will grow handsomely in the coming years. Does that mean the stock is a good value?The company is a leader in data center infrastructure, offering power, thermal management (cooling), and other IT equipment and services. It's an Nvidia partner and is developing a suite of power-system solutions for the new 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) data centers, set for launch in 2027. As such, it's a high-profile play on the ongoing boom in data center spending to support demand coming from AI applications.That said, it's been a peculiar year for the company. Its stock is up more than 67% so far this year, and the company has raised its full-year sales forecast on every earnings call in 2025. Unfortunately, the hike in its sales guidance in 2025 didn't produce the kind of increase in operating profit and cash-flow guidance necessary to justify its valuation, which, based on the midpoint of management's guidance, would put it at 47 times estimated 2025 earnings.This point is illustrated in the table below, where a 10.9% increase in guidance led to a 6.5% increase in adjusted operating profit expectations and a relatively disappointing 15.4% increase in free-cash-flow (FCF) expectations.Increase on Initial Full-Year Guidance in FebruaryIn AprilIn JulyIn OctoberCurrent GuidanceSales guidance2.7%8.7%10.9%$10,200 millionAdjusting operating profit0%2.8%6.5%$2,060 millionFree cash flow0%7.7%15.4%$1,500 millionData source: Vertiv Holdings presentations. All figures are the midpoint of guidance.Under normal circumstances, Vertiv's management expects its incremental margin to be in the 30% to 35% range. In plain English, this means that for every dollar of increased revenue, Vertiv expects to add $0.30 to $0.35 to its adjusted operating profit.Playing this out in 2025 means that the increase in sales expectations of $1 billion through the year should translate into an increase of $300 million to $350 million in adjusted operating profit expectations -- but it didn't. 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