Next week's EUR/USD trading strategyEuro vs United States DollarTICKMILL:EURUSDRyan_Lewis1The US and European economic stability frameworks have strengthened, with hidden uncertainties in the midst of the differences. The Federal Reserve: The interest rate cut cycle has begun, but expectations are divided. The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% as scheduled in October, and announced the end of its asset reduction program in December, making it the second consecutive interest rate cut this year. However, Powell's hawkish statement after the meeting that "the interest rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion" and the public opposition to the October rate cut by three Fed officials indicate an intensification of internal differences - the dovish camp is represented by Powell, emphasizing the need for further rate cuts due to the weak labor market; the hawkish camp is concerned about the rebound in inflation and advocates maintaining the interest rate. Currently, the market's expectation for a December rate cut has dropped from 90% to 70%, and policy uncertainty has become the core bargaining point in the short term market. The European Central Bank: Sticking to interest rates + data dependence, resilience supports policy determination. The ECB has maintained the key interest rate at 2% for three consecutive times. The underlying support behind this is the eurozone's third-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% (surpassing expectations by 0.1%) and the core CPI falling to 2.4% (close to the 2% target). Lagarde clearly stated, "No predetermined interest rate path, decision made at each meeting." Although Europe still faces energy bottlenecks and industrial weakness, compared to the loose pace of the Federal Reserve, the ECB's "stable interest rate" stance has formed a relative interest rate gap advantage, becoming the medium-term support for the euro. Core conclusion of policy differences: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is clear (UBS predicts a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025), the European Central Bank's easing is delayed, the trend of the US-EU interest rate gap narrowing is irreversible, and the long-term support for the euro's strength is provided; but the hawkish-versus-dovish game among Federal Reserve officials in the short term will trigger market expectations to fluctuate, intensifying exchange rate fluctuations. Next week's EUR/USD trading strategy buy：1.16100-1.16200 tp:1.16500-1.16600 sl:1.15800