The 2025 Bihar election was almost a mirror image of 15 years ago, but with some differences. Back in 2010, the JD(U) won 115 of the 141 seats contested, while the BJP won 91 of the 102 constituencies it contested. This time, both allies contested 101 seats each, with the BJP with a slightly better strike rate, with a tally of 89 seats and the JD(U) slightly behind at 85.The NDA wave — the ruling coalition ended up with 202 seats in total — was the result of the enduring popularity of CM Nitish Kumar, with his support among women voters, who outvoted men almost 9 percentage points this time, appearing to have played a decisive role.AdvertisementHere is how the ruling coalition scripted this landslide win:* The great wall of Bihar politicsNitish Kumar is a good case study of a leader whose social engineering moves created a big constituency, providing them with not just a sense of empowerment but also mixing it successfully with “laabharthi (welfare) schemes” and doles, especially in this election.Kumar has proved how a leader from a community (OBC Kurmi) comprising 2.87% of the population can build a caste bloc that has helped him become the longest-serving Bihar CM. It is Nitish’s social and political capital that weighed heavily against Tejashwi Yadav, putting him in elite company that includes former West Bengal CM Jyoti Basu and Odisha ex-CM Naveen Patnaik.Advertisement* The Mahila factorNitish was among the first few leaders who, as an MP, backed a 33% quota for women. When he became Bihar CM after the October 2005 election, he came into the chair with a definite plan. He borrowed many things from former Bihar CM and socialist icon Karpoori Thakur. One was strengthening the Panchayati Raj system and then 50% quota for women in panchayats in his early years of his first term as CM.He followed it up with uniforms and a bicycle scheme for girl students and other educational and welfare schemes. Once, when The Indian Express asked him one thing from his tenure that he would always remember, Nitish replied, “Girls cycling their way to school.” It was not just about bicycles but the wheels of transformation that the JD(U) leader had set in motion.Political scientist Shaibal Gupta had said after the NDA’s 2010 landslide win that Nitish had created a “caste-neutral” constituency of women. And he built it with his own hands. In his first term itself he floated the idea of self-help groups (SHGs). By now, more than 11 lakh SHGs, whose members are known as “Jeevika didis”, have become not just a bridge between people and government schemes but also an apolitical arm of the JD(U). The way the SHGs mobilised women to the NDA’s rallies and polling booths contributed majorly to the women’s high turnout in the election (71.6%). One thing that distinguished the public meetings of Nitish and Tejashwi was the presence of women. While Nitish’s meetings were abuzz with women, most of them talking about the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana or “dashazari” scheme, Tejashwi’s rallies had a nominal presence of women.* Politics of social welfare and dolesNDA handed out doles worth Rs 56,000 crore in annual expenses ahead of the elections, with the primary objective of retaining their vote base and counter any anti-incumbency against the Nitish government.Three welfare initiatives covering an estimated 70-80% of the voters helped turn the narrative towards the government: 125 MW of free electricity that was estimated to benefit 1.64 crore families; the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, popular as the “dashazari scheme” because of the Rs 10,000 first installment deposited in the accounts of eligible women entrepreneurs; and the hike in social security pension from Rs 400 to 1,100 per month.“Even if one household has three voters, we reached out to about 5 crore voters”, said a BJP leader, crediting the NDA’s “think tank” for the free power and “dashazari” schemes. Nitish Kumar, in effect, has become the chief propounder of what social scientist Ashwani Kumar has called the “maternal welfare state”.* Unassailable social combinationThe BJP, the JD(U), and the LJP (RV) together had a solid social combination comprising upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, and Dalits. With Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) and Jitan Ram Manjhi of the HAM (S) bringing 3-4% more to the combine by consolidating the OBC Kushwaha and EBC Dhanuk votes along with the Scheduled Caste Mushahar and Bhuiyan votes.most read* EBCs keep away from RJDIf one discounts the 10.5% Muslim EBCs, there are about 26 Hindu EBC communities. Altogether, 36.01%, EBCs have 113 caste groups, a large chunk of whom used to be Lalu Prasad’s voters till 2000. However, Nitish has assiduously cultivated their support by giving them a 20% quota in panchayati raj institutions in 2016. He further topped it up with education and welfare schemes in subsequent years.“Yadavs’ aggression and dominance will never sit well with EBCs. They voted for Mahagathbandhan in 2015 when Nitish Kumar was a part of it. Otherwise, EBC is a prime NDA constituency, more so post the emergence of Narendra Modi on the national scene in 2014,” said a JD (U) leader.* The Modi factorWhenever NDA voters were asked who they would vote for, Nitish or PM Modi, most took both their names. The Centre’s scheme providing the poor with 5 kg of free food grain each month was also much discussed among voters. Several voters also said that every household received between Rs 2,000 and Rs 5,000 due to the Central and state governments’ schemes. PM Modi’s announcement of several roads, bridges, railways, health and education projects added greatly to the “double engine” government narrative.