As the results of the Bihar Assembly polls gave a sweeping mandate to the NDA, they also delivered another clear message – the Mahagathbandhan’s gamble with the Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and I P Gupta’s Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) did not pay off.The VIP failed to win any of the 10 seats it contested, dashing the Mahagathbandhan’s hopes of making inroads into the NDA’s Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) strongholds by banking on Sahani’s “son of Mallah” appeal. Meanwhile, Gupta was his party’s only candidate to win in his constituency.AdvertisementThe outcome is not just a setback for Sahani, who was declared the Mahagathbandhan’s Deputy CM face, but also for the RJD, which hoped to use his influence among the Nishads, the state’s fishing and boatmen communities, and Gupta’s appeal among the Paan Samaj to break the NDA’s nearly two-decade hold over the EBCs.Some key reasons for the EBCs backing the NDA include fears of a return to lawlessness under an RJD-led regime, the possibility of greater Yadav dominance in rural areas with the Mahagathbandhan in power, Nitish Kumar’s EBC-focused schemes, and a general confidence in his ability to deliver for marginalised communities.Gamble misfiresSahani being projected as the Mahagathbandhan’s Deputy CM face was seen as a bold attempt by Tejashwi Yadav to extend his party’s support base beyond the traditional Muslim-Yadav bloc. The VIP was allotted 12 seats in the seat-sharing arrangement, though two of its candidates were later disqualified.AdvertisementIn districts like Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga, and East Champaran — where Nishad and Mallah populations are concentrated — the VIP was expected to tilt tightly contested races in the Mahagathbandhan’s favour. Instead, the RJD lost ground in several of these constituencies it had been counting on, while Sahani’s candidates themselves struggled to mobilise voters beyond a small section of Mallahs.Even the IIP, which claims support among the Taanti and Paan Samaj communities, failed to make an impact, underscoring how an overreliance on caste arithmetic without strong local organisation or credibility may have hurt these parties.Why VIP failedThe roots of the VIP’s poor performance lie in organisational weaknesses, intra-caste divisions, and Sahani’s own political trajectory. Despite more than a decade in active politics, his party has little grassroots presence outside pockets of north Bihar.In constituencies such as Bagaha, Gopalganj, and Khagaria — all with significant Nishad populations — voters told The Indian Express that while they appreciated Sahani’s rhetoric, his party’s local networks were “invisible”. “His posters are everywhere, but his men are nowhere,” said Shyam Babu Sah, a Turaha fish seller in Siwan.Even within the broader Nishad community, Sahani’s influence appears largely limited to Mallahs, who comprise just 2.6% of Bihar’s population, while other sub-groups such as Binds, Manjhis, and Turhas did not consolidate behind him.Sahani’s frequent political switches — from Mahagathbandhan to NDA and back again — also weakened his credibility. “People like him talk of self-respect one day and join hands with those they criticised the next,” said Rajesh Sahani, a Mallah farmer in West Champaran.EBCs back NDAThe EBCs, constituting around 36% of Bihar’s population, have been the backbone of Nitish Kumar’s politics since 2005. From targeted reservations in panchayats to forming the “atipichhda varg ayog (Extremely Backward Classes Commission)”, Nitish systematically positioned himself as their protector.The BJP further expanded this support through social engineering and central welfare schemes. Together, the NDA built a cross-class alliance of castes that remains strong — one that even caste-centric experiments by the Opposition have struggled to challenge.While the RJD attempted to counter this by embracing leaders such as Sahani and Gupta, the results show that symbolic representation alone could not override two decades of political and welfare consolidation.Sahani’s political future takes a hitFor Sahani, the outcome could have serious consequences. After receiving a generous seat share and being elevated as the deputy CM face, the poor showing will embolden sceptics within the Mahagathbandhan who opposed his inclusion.Shortly after trends confirmed his party’s wipeout, Sahani insisted that the verdict was the “people’s mandate” and not a reflection of organisational slack. “Voters did not connect with our message. They trusted Nitish ji and Modi ji, and I congratulate both of them. We delivered our message. Every alliance leader delivered theirs. But, ultimately it was the public’s verdict,” he said.Sahani argued that the NDA’s targeted promise of direct financial assistance to women was one of the decisive factors behind the Mahagathbandhan’s collapse.He pointed specifically to the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana (MMRY), announced by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on August 29, which promises Rs 2.1 lakh in instalments to women entrepreneurs to start small enterprises.Even before polling day, several RJD leaders privately questioned his ability to transfer votes. “We gave him a platform, visibility, and seats — but where was the performance?” said a senior RJD functionary.Sahani’s political career has often mirrored his shifting allegiances — from campaigning for Narendra Modi in 2014 to aligning with the RJD in 2019, joining the NDA in 2020, and returning to the Mahagathbandhan in 2023. His influence has long depended on being perceived as the representative of a key but fluid EBC bloc.This election result, however, may diminish that leverage. With no wins to show, Sahani’s bargaining power — both within the current alliance and in future negotiations — now stands significantly reduced.Implications for MahagathbandhanFor the RJD and its allies, the results are a reminder of the limits of social engineering without consistent organisational work. Despite Tejashwi’s attempts to expand the coalition to include Dalits, EBCs, and women, the Mahagathbandhan continues to be viewed primarily as a Yadav-Muslim front in many rural belts.The muted EBC response also complicates Tejashwi’s efforts to position himself as a leader of “samajik nyay 2.0 (social justice 2.0)” — an inclusive platform that moves beyond Lalu-era identity politics.As one senior RJD strategist noted: “We overestimated the power of symbolism and underestimated the power of delivery.”A shrinking circlemost readThe results also reopen questions about the Mahagathbandhan’s ability to manage ambitious smaller allies. From the Left parties to VIP and IIP, the alliance has had to juggle competing caste and ideological demands, often at a cost to internal coherence.For Sahani, this could mean a period of recalibration, possibly even a return to the NDA, where former allies are already sending “feelers”, according to BJP insiders.For now, however, the verdict is clear: the “Son of Mallah” could not change the tide. The Mahagathbandhan’s experiment with Nishad politics has run aground, demonstrating once again that while Bihar’s rivers may alter their course, its political currents continue to flow along familiar lines.