EURAUD: Institutional Buying Pressure & Bullish November SetupEUR/AUDOANDA:EURAUDEdgeTradingJourneyThe pair has broken out of the descending channel and is now forming a new ascending structure. Price reacted strongly from the 1.7550–1.7600 demand zone, which aligns with a key structural support and an oversold RSI area. The current consolidation phase is unfolding below a daily inefficiency (gap) around 1.7800–1.7920, which represents the first bullish target. If the bullish structure holds, we could see a three-wave move towards 1.7920, with a potential mid-term pullback to 1.7700 before the next impulsive leg. 🔹 2. COT Report Euro (EUR) Non-commercials: 252k long vs 138k short → net long Commercials: strongly net short Weekly change: +2.6k shorts / -789 longs → slightly reduced bullish momentum ➡️ EUR remains fundamentally strong, though speculative momentum has slightly cooled. Australian Dollar (AUD) Non-commercials: 42k long vs 101k short → deeply net short Shorts increased by +10k this week, indicating renewed institutional bearish pressure. ➡️ AUD remains weak with a clear bearish bias. 👉 Overall COT bias: favors EUR strength and AUD weakness, supporting a bullish view on EURAUD. 🔹 3. Seasonality EUR typically strengthens in November, especially during the last 10 days of the month (+0.003 / +0.004 average). AUD historically shows November weakness across 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y averages. ➡️ Seasonal patterns support the bullish case for EURAUD, aligning with COT positioning. 🔹 4. Retail Sentiment 70% short vs 30% long ➡️ Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal. 📈 Conclusion The medium-term bias remains bullish on EURAUD, with potential upside extension toward 1.7920, and possibly 1.8050 if macro momentum persists. The key support to defend lies at 1.7600 / 1.7550. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward 1.7400.