艾莎2025年11月13日 Linh Pham for The New York TimesWhen President Trump started a trade war with China during his first term, Simon Lichtenberg decided to ride it out. He owned factories making leather sofas in China since the 1990s and figured the two sides would resolve the dispute.当特朗普总统在首个任期内与中国发动贸易战时，李曦萌(Simon Lichtenberg)决定撑过去。这位商人自上世纪90年代起就在中国开设皮沙发制造厂，他当时认为双方最终会解决争端。He doesn’t think that anymore. Mr. Lichtenberg invested around $20 million to move his factory for American clients to Vietnam this year. Now, not even the cease-fire Mr. Trump has reached with China has changed his outlook that deep-seated animosity between the countries has altered the economics of his business.他现在不再这么认为了。他今年投入约2000万美元，将面向美国市场的工厂迁往越南。如今，即便特朗普与中国达成贸易战休战协议，也未能改变他的判断——两国间根深蒂固的敌意已经改变了其生意的经济逻辑。China’s scale and abundant labor turned it into a factory juggernaut for decades, placing it firmly at the heart of the global economy. But Mr. Trump is tearing down the system that allowed manufacturers to seek out the most efficient supply chains. At the same time, China has doubled down on making itself less reliant on the U.S. economy.几十年来，中国凭借规模效应和充足的劳动力，成为全球制造业的巨头，稳居全球经济核心地位。但特朗普正在摧毁允许制造商寻求最高效供应链的既有体系。与此同时，中国也在全力减少对美国经济的依赖。Mr. Trump’s latest deal to cut some new tariffs placed on China has not reversed those trends. It has underscored the volatility of the U.S.-China relationship.特朗普最新达成的削减对华新关税的协议并未扭转这些趋势，反而凸显了中美关系的脆弱多变。So executives like Mr. Lichtenberg are opting out of China for their U.S. business, motivated by a fear of getting caught on the wrong side of what they expect to be an even more unpredictable bilateral relationship. Where it once seemed like having a factory outside China was a fallback, it is starting to look like an economic imperative.因此，像李曦萌这样的企业家正选择将面向美国市场的业务从中国撤离。他们担心自己卷入一个更加不可预测的双边关系。曾几何时，在中国境外设厂只是备用方案，而现在，这正变成一种经济上的必然选择。特雷通集团越南工厂的一名工人。该公司老板说：“没人再相信中美之间的关系会稳定。”撤离中国的企业已转向越南等周边国家——那些地方劳动力便宜，机械设备与原材料运输便利。特雷通集团今年投入约2000万美元，将面向美国市场的家具工厂迁往越南。“Nobody trusts that there is stability between China and the U.S.,” Mr. Lichtenberg said. “It’s like they say: A burned child is scared of fire.” He said his company, Trayton Group, which makes Danish-style modular sofas and reclining chairs, has lost millions of dollars this year because of Mr. Trump’s abrupt and steep new tariffs.“没人再相信中美之间的关系会稳定，”李曦萌说。“就像俗话说的：一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳。”他说，他的公司——生产丹麦风格组合沙发与躺椅的特雷通集团今年因特朗普突然大幅加征关税，已经损失了数百万美元。For many sectors that long ago outsourced to China, moving factories back to the United States is not possible. Costs are too high, and there’s a shortage of workers. Companies that quit China have already gone to neighboring countries like Vietnam, where labor is cheap and it is easy to move machinery and raw materials.对于许多早已将生产线迁至中国的行业而言，把工厂迁回美国已无可能。本土成本过高且劳动力短缺，撤离中国的企业已转向越南等周边国家——那些地方劳动力便宜，机械设备与原材料运输便利。After meeting with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, in South Korea last month, Mr. Trump agreed to halve a 20 percent fentanyl-related tariff and extend an existing pause on reciprocal tariffs, leaving the average tariff rate on Chinese goods at 47.6 percent, according to one estimate. Smaller businesses that have not been able to find factories outside China have cheered the news. But for many others that have already started moving out of China, the truce has had little impact on future strategy and planning.上个月，特朗普在韩国与中国最高领导人习近平会晤后，同意将芬太尼纷争导致的20%关税减半，并延长现有关税互征的暂停期。根据一项估算，这使得中国商品的平均关税率维持在47.6%。无法在中国以外找到工厂的小企业对此消息表示欢迎。但对许多已经开始撤离中国的公司来说，这场停火对它们的未来战略和规划几乎没有影响。“The agreement doesn’t change the calculus that, over the long term, because of the U.S.-China competitive relationship, it’s just going to present a lot more risk for companies to be manufacturing and sourcing things in China,” said Adam Sitkoff, executive director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi, Vietnam.“这项协议并没有改变这样的基本判断：从长期来看，鉴于中美竞争关系，在中国生产和采购产品对企业来说将带来更大的风险，”越南河内的美国商会执行董事亚当·西特考夫说。特雷通集团在越南的工厂。包含中国原材料或投资的产品将如何被特朗普政府最终定性仍是不确定的问题。特雷通集团在上海郊外新建的工厂几乎空置，这里的生产原本面向美国市场。特雷通集团在越南的工厂。中国正在丧失美国工厂的地位。China is already losing its title as the factory floor for Americans. Some of the world’s best-known companies, including Nike, Apple and Intel, have moved quickly this year to scale down what they make in China for the U.S. market. The country is no longer the sneaker capital for Americans. That designation now belongs to Vietnam.中国正在丧失美国工厂的地位。包括耐克、苹果和英特尔在内的全球知名企业今年均加速缩减了在中国为美国市场生产的业务。这个国家已不再是美国人的运动鞋制造霸主，这个头衔如今属于越南。The trend is also showing up in data from the U.S. Census Bureau, even for products that have received tariff exemptions, such as laptops and smartphones. The United States now gets most of its smartphones and laptops from India and Vietnam, according to the latest numbers.美国人口普查局的数据同样印证这一趋势——即便笔记本电脑和智能手机等获关税豁免的产品也不例外。根据最新数据，美国当前大部分智能手机和笔记本电脑都来自印度与越南。While the business world is coalescing around the idea that China is no longer the best option for making the things sold to Americans, it’s not yet clear which countries will be the best alternatives.尽管商界逐渐形成共识：中国不再是为美国市场制造商品的最佳选择，但目前尚不清楚哪些国家将成为最理想的替代者。But Mr. Trump’s trade policy remains in flux, including how he will respond if the Supreme Court nullifies the legal underpinning for many of his tariffs. For manufacturers in China sorting future plans, uncertainty hangs over how Mr. Trump will ultimately define products that contain raw materials or investment from China. Will products made in factories in Vietnam that have close ties to China be considered Vietnamese or Chinese?但特朗普的贸易政策仍充满变数，包括最高法院若否决其多项关税的法律依据，他将作何反应。对于正在规划未来的中国制造商而言，其产品若含中国原材料或投资，将如何被特朗普政府最终定性，仍是不确定的问题。那些与中国存在紧密联系的越南工厂生产的产品，究竟会被视为越南制造还是中国制造？特雷通集团越南工厂里的木制部件。 Linh Pham for The New York Times用越南语和中文标注的皮革裁剪模板。 Linh Pham for The New York Times“In Trump’s first term, he made everybody run away from China and a lot of business shifted to Vietnam,” said Gabriele Natale, the managing director of Man Wah USA, which makes furniture for retailers like Walmart and Costco. The company decided to move to Vietnam in 2019 and spent hundreds of millions of dollars building up a 5.8-million-square-foot factory near Ho Chi Minh City. Everything it sells in North America now comes from that factory.“在特朗普首个任期内，他迫使所有人逃离中国，大量业务转向越南，”为沃尔玛、开市客等零售商生产家具的敏华美国总裁加布里埃·纳塔莱表示。该公司于2019年决定迁往越南，耗资数亿美元在胡志明市附近兴建了54万平方米的工厂。如今，它在北美销售的所有产品都来自那家工厂。“In his second term, Mr. Trump is hitting everything everywhere,” Mr. Natale said. “You can run, but you can’t hide.”“到了第二任期，特朗普对所有地方、所有行业都下手了，”纳塔莱说，“你可以逃，但你躲不掉。”His company now has 15 production facilities around the world, including in Mexico and Eastern Europe.他所在的公司目前在全球拥有15家生产基地，包括墨西哥和东欧。American retailers are increasingly demanding that their suppliers reduce exposure to China.美国零售商正不断要求供应商减少对中国的依赖。Fleming International, which makes candles in Vietnam, was asked by its biggest American customers to move as much production as possible to the United States. It will soon start making vanilla-, elderberry- and pumpkin-scented candles from a new factory in Heber Springs, Ark. — at double or triple the cost in Vietnam.在越南生产蜡烛的弗莱明国际公司应其最大美国客户要求，正将尽可能多的产能转移至美国。该公司很快将在阿肯色州希伯斯普林斯的新工厂开始生产香草、接骨木莓和南瓜香味的蜡烛——成本是越南的两至三倍。特朗普的贸易政策仍充满变数，包括如果最高法院否决其多项关税的法律依据他将作何反应。特雷通集团在越南的工厂。曾几何时，在中国境外设厂只是备用方案，现在则正变成一种经济上的必然选择。工人正在特雷通集团越南工厂的食堂里吃午餐。“As far as geopolitics, we feel like it’s a long-term strategy,” said Lowell Newman, a senior adviser for Fleming. “We’re not expecting overnight success.”“从地缘政治的角度来看，我们认为这是一项长期战略，”弗莱明的高级顾问洛威尔·纽曼说，“我们并不指望立竿见影的成效。”New tariffs could change the calculus once more for the company, which is also opening a facility in El Salvador in a few months. Mr. Trump’s willingness to wield tariffs haphazardly, sometimes as punishment for perceived grievances, has made it hard to make business decisions.新一轮关税可能再次改变该公司的战略考量。它在萨尔瓦多的新工厂将于数月后投产。特朗普随意动用关税手段的倾向（有时仅为宣泄不满）使企业难以做出商业决策。“Just tell us the duties,” Mr. Newman said. “Don’t get mad and pick up your marbles in the fight like a child playing.”“只要告诉我们税率是多少就行，”纽曼说。“别像个玩耍时生气的小孩那样，一不高兴就不玩了。”He’s not alone in experiencing whiplash. Mr. Lichtenberg is still recovering from the last shock on Oct. 10, a few weeks before the latest U.S.-China trade truce.遭受这种政策震荡的并非只有他。李曦萌仍未从10月10日的那场震荡中恢复，那是在最近一轮美中贸易战休战几周前。From his home in Shanghai, Mr. Lichtenberg had just finished up a midnight call with his American clients when, checking the news before bed, he saw that Mr. Trump was ranting on social media about Mr. Xi. He turned off the lights anticipating a fresh crisis in the morning.他在上海家中刚与美国客户完成午夜通话，睡前查阅新闻时恰见特朗普在社交媒体怒斥中国领导人。熄灯时他已预见次日清晨必将迎来新一轮危机。When he woke up, Mr. Trump had set a new tariff of 100 percent on China. Mr. Lichtenberg thought back to six months earlier when Mr. Trump announced a 125 percent rate, which the president later clarified would be even higher at 145 percent.待他醒来时，特朗普已宣布对中国征收100%的新关税。李曦萌回想起半年前特朗普宣布125%关税的场景，后来他又补充说税率还会更高——达到145%。特雷通集团的老板李曦萌(Simon Lichtenberg)站在集团位于中国嘉兴的新建工厂前。约500名曾忙碌在生产线上的中国工人在今年被解雇后已尽数离去。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times特雷通集团嘉兴工厂内的家具框架。这家工厂现在几乎空空荡荡。The difference was that in April, Mr. Lichtenberg had 350 containers ready to ship from China to the United States. This time, he had only several dozen.不同的是，在4月份时，李曦萌有350个集装箱准备从中国运往美国；而这一次，他只有几十个。Now, about half of his overall production comes out of his new factory in an industrial park in Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam. A dozen other factories and suppliers have also moved there from China.如今，他大约一半的产量来自越南南部胡志明市一个工业园区内的新厂。另有十余家工厂及供应商也已从中国迁至该地。Back in China, a newly built factory Mr. Lichtenberg had used for his American customers on the outskirts of Shanghai sits mostly vacant. Rows of blue and yellow metal shelves are empty. A new robot that can assemble the wood frames for his couches stands still. Around 500 Chinese workers who once filled the factory lines are gone, after being laid off this year.在中国，李曦萌为美国市场在上海郊外新建的工厂如今几乎空置。成排的蓝色和黄色金属货架空荡荡的，一台可以组装沙发木架的新机器人静止不动。约500名曾忙碌在生产线上的中国工人，在今年遭解雇后已尽数离去。“The idea was that it would be full by next year,” Mr. Lichtenberg said as he walked through the dark, quiet and cavernous factory.“原本预计明年这里就会满负荷运转，”李曦萌走在昏暗、寂静、空旷的厂房中说道。“It’s more empty than ever.”“现在比以往任何时候都要空。”“原本预计明年这里就会满负荷运转，”李曦萌谈起这家中国工厂。“现在比以往任何时候都要空。”Tung Ngo自胡志明市对本文有报道贡献。Li You自上海有研究贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site