BTC and Macro Environment · Optimism Creeps Back InBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDTheCryptoFireThe macro environment is warming up again. Traders are slowly adding risk as Bitcoin BTCUSD holds above $100K and Ethereum ETHUSD shows rising retail activity. Altcoins are regaining liquidity, and sentiment feels like cautious optimism. What’s driving this shift? Money. Talk of new stimulus checks and potential rate cuts are fueling bullish expectations. The idea is simple: more liquidity means stronger risk appetite. But this comes with a catch. Fiscal math doesn’t add up cleanly. With tariffs bringing in $224.7B and proposed stimulus near $400B, inflation fears could return fast if spending isn’t balanced. The U.S. government’s reopening adds another layer. Once the Treasury starts releasing the $1 trillion parked in its account, liquidity will flow again into agencies and contractors. This real injection supports a bullish tone across markets, including crypto. On the chart above, Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA) is the key signal. BTC closing above it suggests the long-term uptrend remains intact. Historically, this level marks early bullish phases, not tops. If it holds, traders may stay long but cautious, watching for shifts in Fed tone or inflation data. Overall, the crypto market is showing signs of recovery. Liquidity is improving, technicals look stable, and optimism is back, but not overheated. It’s not 2021 euphoria, just steady confidence built on real macro shifts. Stay focused, manage risk, and don’t rush. The setup looks bullish for now, but caution still pays. TheCryptoFire