Triple Contrarian Signals Break the Bear Market NarrativeBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDRyan_Lewis11. On-Chain Structure: Clear Bottom Characteristics, Supply Contraction Builds a Safety Cushion On-chain data shows multiple bottom signals, diverging from the "bear market" appearance. The NVT ratio dropped to a 2025 low of 1.48, below the 2022 bear market bottom of 1.6. Historical data indicates a 92% probability of growth within 12 months when this figure falls below 1.5. Miners net accumulated 42,000 BTC in 30 days, with balances reaching 1.863 million BTC—marking the largest monthly increase since January 2023. Hash rate simultaneously climbed to 378 EH/s, and the divergence between hash rate and price signals potential for subsequent price catch-up. Meanwhile, exchanges recorded net outflows for five consecutive days, reducing circulating supply by 93,000 BTC in total. Chips are concentrated in the hands of long-term holders, with large-scale panic transfers accounting for only 2.1%—far below the bear market average of 8.3%. 2. Capital Side: ETF Outflows ≠ Institutional Bearishness, Off-Exchange Absorption Is Strong Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative outflows of $2.8 billion in the past month, but this is not an institutional bearish signal but rather capital reallocation from "off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet." Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs absorbed chips through the OTC market, with off-exchange trading volume surging 78% in 30 days to bypass ETF subscription and redemption restrictions. This "apparent decrease but actual increase" pattern emerged at the March 2020 bear market bottom, followed by a 170% Bitcoin rally in the subsequent six months. The cost basis of long-term holders is approximately $68,000, and current prices, with nearly 50% floating profits, have not triggered large-scale selling—indicating solid institutional core positions and sufficient low-level absorption capacity. 3. Macroeconomics & Liquidity: Non-U.S. Capital Becomes a New Engine, Dollar Negative Correlation Strengthens Bitcoin has evolved from a "U.S. dollar liquidity asset" to a "global liquidity asset," with incremental liquidity driven by fiscal expansion in non-U.S. economies serving as the core driver. Global M2 growth remains at 8.7%, and non-U.S. economies reach 11.8%. Such funds have higher risk appetite and still have room to double their allocation ratio. Bitcoin’s negative correlation coefficient with the U.S. Dollar Index has strengthened to -0.78. The current U.S. Dollar Index is in a correction cycle, further reducing Bitcoin’s holding costs and resonating with gold’s safe-haven properties. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped to 51.6%, the market has fully priced in hawkish expectations, leaving limited room for further downside. 4. Technical Side: Resonance of Key Supports, Oversold Rebound Signals Emerge $96,000 is near the critical support level of the 200-day moving average ($95,730), forming a dual defense with the cost basis of short-term holders. On the daily chart, MACD green bars continue to shorten, forming a golden cross prototype, while the RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone—signaling exhaustion of short-term downward momentum. Upper resistance focuses on the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform at $108,420. The price gap between the current level and the resistance provides ample room for rebound expectations; a breakthrough will open the channel for valuation recovery. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：95500-96500 tp:98000-99000 sl：94000