Nate Silver: “Once the shutdown began on Oct. 1, I disagreed with the conventional wisdom that Democrats were ‘winning’ it. True, polls found that a slight plurality of voters blamed Republicans rather than Democrats. But those same polls showed that voters didn’t understand why there was a shutdown in the first place, and that Democrats’ message on health care wasn’t breaking through. Moreover, Democrats’ advantage on the ‘blame’ question was eroding over time — while Trump’s approval rating actually improved initially once the shutdown began.”“Then something changed — and I was getting ready to eat crow. Late last month, Trump’s numbers began to plummet, with his net approval rating falling from −7.5 on Oct. 17 to −13 three weeks later. It wasn’t a huge shift in absolute terms. But Trump has had a high popularity floor and a low ceiling. It was something real enough to contribute to Democrats absolutely crushing Republicans in a series of elections last Tuesday in New Jersey, Virginia and other states. Meanwhile, Trump was starting to feud with Congressional Republicans, urging them to ‘nuke’ the filibuster when leadership was reluctant to do so.”“So what did Democrats do with their newfound leverage? Over the weekend, they just gave up.”