GTA 6 Won't Save The Struggling Games Industry, Expert Says

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Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to be, by some accounts, the most important release in the history of video games as it relates to helping the video game industry rebound. But GTA 6 is not a magic bullet and cannot solve the wider issues within gaming as it relates to health and stability, according to analyst and NYU Stern professor Joost van Dreunen.He told IGN that people should not look to GTA 6 to help address the wider, more systemic issues impacting the video game business. GTA 6, of course, is expected to have a gargantuan debut, with one firm modeling sales of 40 million and revenue of $3 billion in the first year alone. Van Dreunen concurs that GTA 6 will be a massive launch, but said people are overly optimistic if they think GTA 6 is a magic bullet."After the high comes the hangover," he said. "I realize that many in the industry are looking forward to this undoubtedly pivotal moment. There's even a somewhat naive expectation that this one release will reverse the industry's current direction. It won't."When GTA 6 comes out, gamers and investors alike with "enjoy their respective highs," but the painful comedown may come next."I expect a period of sobriety to follow. In the absence of any similar releases in the near future especially investors are likely to redeploy their capital elsewhere, thereby lowering the industry's overall valuation," he said.The video game industry has faced cuts and setbacks in recent years, including a spate of mass layoffs, price increases, and numerous game cancellations.People like former PlayStation executive Shawn Layden have been saying time and again that the AAA scene is unsustainable. In 2012, Assassin's Creed III director Alex Hutchinson said the pursuit of AAA games represents a "cancerous growth." Because of this, Hutchinson said he expects AAA games to die out. "I think that will leave the AAA blockbusters as nothing more than the last of the dinosaurs," he said.GTA 6 is set for release in November 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, following a delay from May 2026.