LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new weekGoldOANDA:XAUUSDLiamTradingFXLiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Two scenarios for the new week: waiting for reactions at 4100 & Fibonacci zone – prioritizing bullish trades when the market recovers Gold is completing a technical rebound after a sharp drop, and H1 is showing two clear scenarios for the new week. The medium-term trend remains a downward correction, but on H1, the price is in a recovery phase, so bullish trades will be prioritized – as long as the lower liquidity zones are maintained. The key this week lies at 4100, the confluence of FVG, Fibonacci, and liquidity – this is the decisive point to see if gold will bounce up or continue to fall deeply. 🔍 Technical Analysis (Fibonacci • Trendline • Liquidity • Volume Zone) Fibonacci H1: The price may recover to Fib 0.5 (~4140–4150) – a zone with high liquidity & likely to trigger a bearish reaction. Fib 0.382 (~4120–4130) is currently the first short-term resistance. Price Structure: The medium-term downtrend still exists, but H1 is creating a recovery wave → prioritize buying when the price pulls back at the support zone. The descending trendline is still controlling the market. If it breaks the trendline + holds above 4130–4150 → the uptrend is more strongly confirmed. Important liquidity zones: 4100: liquidity confluence + previous bullish resistance → strong reaction zone. 4085 and 4060: liquidity bottoms – if breached, will trigger a deep decline scenario. 4032: FVG + Fibonacci bottom – the "break or hold" zone for buyers. Key resistance this week: 4161 – 4187 – 4138 – 4111 📈 TRADING SCENARIOS FOR THE NEW WEEK Scenario 1 – Bullish trade (priority) Logic: Gold is recovering; if it holds 4100 and pulls back strongly → target is the upper Fibonacci zone. Entry: 4100–4111 SL: 4090 TP: 4138 → 4161 → 4187 Suggestion: Wait for strong signals like a pin bar or H1 engulfing to confirm the recovery bottom. Scenario 2 – Bearish trade (when the market fails to hold the bottom) Logic: If gold breaks the H1 bottom and retests 4100 without holding → the medium-term downtrend continues to activate. Entry: 4100–4108 (retest after break) SL: 4120 TP: 4085 → 4060 → 4032 Suggestion: Only enter when H1 closes below 4100. 🌍 Macro Analysis – Fed disrupts the market According to the latest data from CME Watch: 54.1% chance Fed holds rates steady at 375–400 bps 45.9% chance Fed cuts rates The ratio is almost balanced → the market is very uncertain, creating unpredictable volatility ahead of the 10/12 meeting. In this environment, gold often reacts strongly to unexpected news, so prioritize trading at liquidity zones – wait for clear confirmations. ⚠️ Invalidation Conditions Price closes below 4060 → fully prioritize bearish trades. Price closes above 4161 → strong bullish trade activated, discard all sell setups. What scenario are you preparing for the new week? Comment & hit Follow on the LiamTrading channel to receive the earliest analysis every day!