Fundamental Market Analysis for November 14, 2025 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The pound remains pressured by a mix of domestic and external factors. Fresh U.K. releases point to slower economic activity and keep alive the discussion about whether the Bank of England should ease policy late this year or in early next year. This backdrop limits capital inflows into sterling assets and heightens GBP’s sensitivity to swings in global risk appetite. Fiscal headlines and budget expectations add another layer of uncertainty. Talk of adjusting tax-and-spend plans makes investors more cautious, while elevated government borrowing costs lift the economy’s financing burden. Against this backdrop, markets prefer defensive positioning, which caps the pound’s upside versus the dollar. External drivers look neutral-to-negative for GBP: episodes of dollar softness are intermittent, and overall market volatility plus the pound’s dependence on U.S. yields make it hard for GBP/USD to mount a durable rally. Until clearer signals emerge on the inflation path and BoE decisions, the risk of renewed GBP/USD declines stays elevated. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.31500, SL 1.32050, TP 1.30650.