November 14, 2025 12:27 PM IST First published on: Nov 14, 2025 at 12:23 PM ISTEven though the Bihar election was supposed to be a battle between the NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan, electoral trends show that it is NDA allies JD(U) and BJP that are vying for the position as the single-largest party, with the ruling coalition in the lead in over 180 seats. The Tejashwi Prasad-led RJD, which was the single-largest party in 2020, has suffered a massive blow, with its leads falling below 50 constituencies while the Congress leads are in single digits. These equations, however, can change marginally for the Mahagathbandhan as counting heads towards the final rounds.NDABJPThe BJP looks to benefit from the mutual conversion of votes in the five-party alliance, with the LJP (RV) of Chirag Paswan and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha of Upendra Kushwaha that together have more than 7% of votes adding value to the coalition.AdvertisementJD(U)Ahead of counting, many in the JD(U) were not hoping for more than 60-65 seats, given that it had ended up with 43 last time around. But the return of Chirag, who had damaged it in 2020 in several seats, and Kushwaha have added the mutual vote conversion and propelled the JD(U). The election narrative of the NDA hinged on the Nitish government’s welfare schemes (Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana or the “dashazari” scheme) and the CM’s popularity. The heavy turnout of women voters indicated big support for the NDA and the results are now apparent.LJP (RV)The Chirag Paswan-led party appears to be one of the big winners in the election, with leads in 22 seats as of 11.45 am. While there were apprehensions that it would turn out to be a weak link since many in the coalition thought that the 29 seats given to it were too high, Chirag has proved that it was the right decision to push for a higher share in seat allocation. If the party ends up with anywhere close to the current leads it has, Chirag Paswan will become an important stakeholder in state politics and the government going forward.HAM(S) and RLMJitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha, contesting six seats each, also appear to be doing well. Even if they win three seats each, they will stay afloat in state politics. Their importance is even more in adding extra votes to the NDA.AdvertisementMahagathbandhanRJDThe RJD promised a government job to each of the 2.5 crore families in the state, 200 MW of free power, and Rs 2,500 to each woman per month under Mai Bahin Maan Yojana. But these promises appear not to have cut much ice with voters in the face of the success of the Nitish government’s welfare initiatives.While Tejashwi Prasad Yadav’s jobs narrative did draw young voters during campaigning, it was the only a sizable vocal chunk he had. Eventually, it boiled down to social combination and leadership comparisons, and Tejashwi failed to break out of the mould of a Muslim-Yadav leader and also lagged far behind the tried-and-tested Nitish with his brand of social engineering mixed with development paradigm.CongressThe Congress won 19 out of 70 seats in 2020, hurting the Mahagathbandhan’s prospects of coming to power. This time, it looks set to perform even worse, with 5 out of 61 seats. As was apparent during campaigning, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” narrative found no resonance with voters.CPI (M-L) LiberationCPI (M-L) Liberation won 12 seats in 2020 does not seem to be doing too well this time. One possible reason is the return of Kushwaha and Chirag to the NDA fold.VIP and IIPWith hindsight, the Mahagathbandhan’s Deputy CM face, Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), likely erred in calling himself the leader of all castes that are dependent on the riverine economy. The VIP leader also did not contest elections, something that perhaps did not go down too well with his voters.I P Gupta of the Indian Inclusive Party, however, looks to have done well within his limits in weaning away some fellow castes to the Mahagathbandhan fold.