BTCUSD – Full Market Analysis and High-Accuracy Trading PlanBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDFMFinancialAdvisor BTCUSD – Full Market Analysis and High-Accuracy Trading Plan Date: 16 November 2025 Time: 4:30 PM (GMT+6) 1. Overall Trend Direction BTCUSD remains clearly bearish on the higher timeframes. Both the 4H and 1H charts show a continuous sequence of downside Break of Structures (BOS), confirming that the market is in a corrective bearish phase. Over the past few sessions, BTCUSD has dropped from 104,000 to 100,000, then to 98,000, and finally into the 96,000 region. Every bullish pullback has been shallow, reflecting the presence of institutional sellers. The price is now consolidating around 96,000, which often forms before a continuation move to the downside. The higher-timeframe structural liquidity at 94,000 remains untouched, making it the primary downside liquidity target. In summary, the overall market bias is still bearish, and intraday bullish rallies are corrective in nature rather than true reversals. 2. Technical Analysis The current technical landscape is dominated by supply zones and liquidity structures. Major Supply Zones (Strong Resistance) These zones previously generated strong sell-side pressure and remain valid bearish continuation levels: 102,000 – 104,000 106,000 – 108,000 110,000 – 112,000 Immediate Intraday Supply (Current Reaction Zone) 96,200 – 96,500 This zone is very important because multiple equal highs (EQH) have formed here. EQH serves as a liquidity pool that smart money typically sweeps before initiating a reversal. This makes the zone the most probable area for short-term rejection. Major Support Zones 95,800 – 95,600 (intraday demand) 95,200 – 95,000 (secondary demand) 94,000 (weak low and major sell-side liquidity target) If the downside continuation unfolds, these levels are likely to be tested sequentially. Among them, 94,000 is the strongest liquidity magnet. 3. Smart Money Concept (SMC) BTCUSD shows a very clean SMC structure. Key observations: 1. Multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) to the downside Intraday structure repeatedly shifted bearish below 97,000. 2. Continuous creation of Equal Highs (EQH) Each corrective rally has formed EQH, indicating liquidity build-up. Smart money typically sweeps this liquidity before initiating aggressive selling. 3. Untouched sell-side liquidity at 94,000 This is a weak low and a major area of interest for institutional players. 4. BOS on 5M and 15M timeframes These confirm that intraday momentum remains strongly bearish. Based on this structure, the most probable next move is: Liquidity sweep at 96,200 – 96,500 → bearish continuation toward 95,600 → 95,200 → 94,000. 4. Fibonacci Analysis The most recent impulsive decline was from 98,000 down to 94,000. Fibonacci retracement levels: 0.382 = 96,100 0.50 = 96,400 0.618 = 96,700 Price is currently rejecting from the 0.382 – 0.50 region, which is a standard bearish pullback zone. If price extends to 0.618, that level becomes the final mitigation area where a strong rejection is likely. 5. RSI Analysis 4H RSI has pulled back from oversold conditions but remains below 50, confirming bearish momentum. 1H RSI has printed a lower high, which supports bearish continuation. 15M RSI shows clear bearish divergence at the EQH region, indicating a liquidity sweep and potential reversal point. 6. Volume Analysis Strong selling volume has been present during downside moves. Pullback candles show significantly lower volume, indicating weak buying pressure and confirming that the current bullish move is corrective rather than accumulation. Volume profile also shows heavier activity below current price levels, suggesting a move downward to fill liquidity. 7. Fundamental Overview The broader fundamental environment remains neutral to bearish for Bitcoin. A strong US Dollar Index (DXY) is pressuring risk assets. Overall risk sentiment in global markets is weak, and Bitcoin ETF inflows have declined, indicating reduced institutional buying. The market has not yet recovered from the recent sell-off. Technicals and fundamentals are aligned toward a bearish scenario. --- High-Accuracy Trading Plan Main Market Bias: Bearish High-Probability Sell Zone 96,200 – 96,500 This zone is the confluence of EQH, Fibonacci 0.50 retracement, intraday supply, and a smart money mitigation block. Stop Loss: 97,000 (structure invalidation) Take Profit Targets: 95,600 95,200 94,000 (major liquidity sweep target) Low-Risk Countertrend Buy Setup (Scalp Only) Buy Zone: 95,000 – 94,800 This zone contains 4H demand and potential liquidity-based reaction. Stop Loss: 94,400 Take Profit: 95,800 --- Final Summary BTCUSD is currently in a strong bearish correction phase. The price is trading inside the 96,200 – 96,500 supply zone where liquidity has built up, making it the most probable area for short-term rejection. The main downside liquidity magnet remains the 94,000 level. The most likely market sequence is: Liquidity sweep above → bearish continuation → targets at 95,600 → 95,200 → 94,000.