Is Gold about to start a 18 month crash? - August 2025GoldOANDA:XAUUSDwithout_worries** The next 18 months ** For the last couple of years Without Worries has been quite the bear on gold price action since $2200-2500 per ounce area. Now price action is up an additional 50%. Even today In some parts of the world $2500 remains more than twice the cost miners pay for recovery, which is Incredible. Price action now flirts with 3400-3500 as Gold bugs call for higher prices. Animal spirts are in full control. Indeed influencer and enthusiasts talk of forecasts to $7k, $10k as they seek an apology, “Do you admit you were wrong?”, that sort of thing, so strong is the conviction. Looking left, the last 1 to 2 years, absolutely. The market appetite was completely unforeseen by myself. From my perspective a 25 year bull run from $250 an ounce has played out. A bull run that has delivered an astonishing 1300% return, which is many multiples of the increased dollar supply (M2) even if you factor in the rate of inflation. Has my opinion changed? Is it true this time is different, is Gold now actually front running the inevitable devaluation of fiat currencies? Absolutely not. Price action is in an epic bubble not seen since 1980. Most of you reading this weren’t even born then. As incredible as the rush from $2k to $3.5k was (still underperforming Bitcoin by some margin); the last couple of years has protected purchasing power during persistent periods of inflation. The time to make good on that projection has arrived, but many gold investors might ignore that opportunity. Gold as an insurance product is only as good as the day you collect it. Why so bearish? There’s fundamental and technical outlooks. The fundamental reasons A bubble of this magnitude has not been seen since the 1980’s decoupling of the Gold standard. Not withstanding uncertainty and panic, today’s bubble is driven by a combination of factors such as conflict, run away state debt, unstable government, uncertain tariff policy. The combination has been the perfect storm for Gold to thrive. The 1980’s bubble was followed by a 70% correction after a massive 700% rally. Now we have a 1300% 25 year rally from the lows of 2000, and somehow I’m told this is the new normal. Typically I’m not one for fundamentals, regardless, the period of history we’re entering is not all that dissimilar from the 1980s through to 1984, many comparisons exist so lets got through them year by year. During each of those years the gold price declined, in particular 81 and 82 What happened between 1980 and 84 to cause such a drawdown? As we go through the reasons, think about the expectations for 2026 through until 2028, think about what those years may bring considering the world we’re in today and as it was between 1980 to 84. The period from 1980 to 1984 was marked by significant global events. In particular a severe worldwide economic recession and a heightened period of the Cold War. Republican president Ronald Reagan adopted a more aggressive stance against the Soviet Union. In the end the Soviet Union collapsed, although not the same, war driven Russia today is faced with economic challenges that will require a generation of recovery. The most significant event of this period was the global recession that began in 81, widely regarded as the most severe since the 1940s. Gold dropped 35% in 1981 alone. A primary cause of the recession was the tightening of monetary policies by major developed nations, particularly the United States under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. This was a deliberate effort to combat high inflation rates that had plagued the economy in previous years (similar to the current situation). Interest rates were significantly increased, reaching nearly 20%. On Inflationary pressures… The effects of tariffs are unlikely to be fully realised until late 2026. But the rate of inflation is now falling, right? That’s the talk. However tariff effects will very likely cause strong inflationary pressures, which are just beginning to be felt. This couldn’t come at a worst possible time as the US reports false and falling employment numbers. A combination of rising unemployment with unseen rates of inflation since the 1980s would indeed be an experience not observed for over two generations. Technological achievements 1982 saw great technologic advancement with the IBM personal computer release marking a significant step in the personal computing revolution. It did not trigger a sudden catastrophic wave of job losses in the way one might imagine. Instead, the arrival accelerated a fundamental restructuring of the job market not unlike what is now seen with the onset of AI tools. I do emphasise ‘tools’, a human component shall always be required. An expert in his or her field. The point would be the disruption to the market new technology brings, which shall inevitability begin with increasing rates of unemployment. Gold had corrected over 60% by this point. In summary, the early 1980s was a period of significant economic restructuring aimed at taming inflation, which came at the cost of a severe recession and high unemployment. The geopolitical landscape remained tense and dynamic. When confidence in the market returns, regardless if it is good or bad, Gold falters on market confidence. The technical Price action printed a new 6 month candle with the close of July. Whether you believe in technical analysis or not, three are now several facts that require attention. They include: A candle count. The age of an Impulsive move is one of the most simplest measurement tools of any chart to help understand if buyer or seller appetite is dwindling. As you study impulsive moves from 6, 7 and 8 month charts that have printed since 1975 you realise each move is limited to a set number of green candles. The greatest being 8 x seven green monthly candle prints. The current print has 7 x seven month candle prints. The Bollinger Band For the first time in 45 years price action has printed a candle body well outside the Bollinger Band, 2 standard deviations (red circles) from the Mean. That is extraordinary. There is now a 95% probability price action shall pivot and begin a trend towards the mean, currently priced at $1800. Relative Strength Index (RSI) To see RSI at 94 on a six month chart in combination with matching Candle Count and Bollinger Band condition is a strong indication of what should be expected to follow. Notice the RSI support is now confirmed as resistance. In summary, there are both fundamentals and technical reasons to now expect a macro shift in price action due to shifts in the global economy that began many months ago. Is it possible price action continue with higher prints? Absolutely. Is it probable? No. Ww