ANATOLY KURMANAEV, KSENIA CHURMANOVA, NATALIYA VASILYEVA2025年8月19日乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区托列茨克郊外前线阵地的一名乌克兰士兵。该地区是乌俄领土争端的核心。 Tyler Hicks/The New York TimesThe proposal to end the war in Ukraine that emerged from the summit in Alaska between President Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia centers on persuading Kyiv to give up the Donbas, the industrial region in the east.美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京在阿拉斯加举行的峰会上拿出的结束俄乌战争方案，其核心是说服基辅放弃东部工业区顿巴斯。The traditionally Russian-speaking area has been at the heart of what Mr. Putin calls the “root causes” of the war, and taking it over is near the top of his list of territorial and political demands.这个传统上说俄语的地区一直是普京称之为战争“根源”的核心，接管该地区几乎位于普京的领土和政治诉求清单之首。Mr. Putin has tried to control the Donbas since 2014, first through separatist proxies and then by invading and annexing the region in 2022. Since the full-scale invasion, the Donbas has been the site of the war’s deadliest battles, and is the main focus of Russia’s summer offensive.自2014年以来，普京一直试图控制顿巴斯地区，先是通过分裂分子的代理战争，然后是2022年的入侵和强占。自从俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，顿巴斯一直是俄乌战争最惨烈的战场，也是俄罗斯夏季攻势的主要焦点。The Kremlin’s forces and its separatist allies have conquered about 87 percent of the Donbas since 2014, according to data from DeepState, a Ukrainian group that tracks battlefield developments. Russian forces are now chipping away at the 2,600 square miles of the region that remain in Ukrainian hands with very heavy losses. Without a cease-fire, the battle for the Donbas is almost certain to stretch into next year and cost tens of thousands of lives, military analysts say.据跟踪战事的乌克兰组织DeepState的数据，俄罗斯军队和亲俄分裂分子已控制了顿巴斯地区约87%的面积。俄罗斯军队正以惨重代价逐步蚕食仍由乌方控制的约6700平方公里土地。军事分析人士指出，如果不停火，顿巴斯的战火几乎肯定将持续到明年，代价将是数万人死亡。The region’s fate could shape the outcome of the war.该地区的命运或将决定整场战争的走向。What is Putin offering?普京提出的方案是什么？The substance of a peace deal discussed by Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin in Alaska on Friday remains murky. The few known details come from the U.S. president’s telling of the discussion in a later call to European officials.特朗普和普京上周五在阿拉斯加讨论的和平协议内容仍不明朗。少数已知细节来自美国总统在峰会后与欧洲官员通话时对讨论的描述。Mr. Putin is demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas, according to two senior European officials who were briefed on the call. In return, Mr. Putin is offering to freeze the conflict in the rest of Ukraine along the current front lines and to provide a written promise not to attack again, according to the senior European officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private talks.据两名听取了通话简报的欧洲高级官员透露，普京要求乌克兰从顿巴斯地区撤军。而作为回报，普京提出将乌克兰其他地方的冲突定格在目前的前线，并提供不再发动进攻的书面承诺。由于讨论的是没有公开的谈判内容，上述欧洲高级官员要求不具名。Mr. Trump has called on President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to take the deal. “Russia is a very big power, and they’re not,” he said on Fox News after meeting Mr. Putin.特朗普呼吁乌克兰总统泽连斯基接受这个交易。“俄罗斯是个非常强大的国家，而乌克兰不是，”他与普京会晤后在福克斯新闻节目上说。俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普上周五在阿拉斯加举行了会晤。特朗普支持普京提出的达成全面和平协议的建议，该建议的基础是乌克兰把领土割让给俄罗斯。Mr. Zelensky has categorically rejected giving up any territory not already under Russian occupation. “We will not leave the Donbas,” he told reporters last week. “We cannot do that.”泽连斯基已断然拒绝放弃任何没有被俄罗斯占领的领土。“我们不会离开顿巴斯地区，”他上周对记者说。“我们不能那样做。”Mr. Zelensky is scheduled to meet Mr. Trump on Monday at the White House.泽连斯基定于周一在白宫与特朗普会晤。The Ukrainian authorities estimate that more than 200,000 civilians still live in the corner of the Donbas that they control, primarily in the densely populated and heavily fortified industrial sprawl in and around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.据乌克兰当局估计，20多万平民仍生活在由乌克兰控制的顿巴斯地区，他们主要居住在斯洛维扬斯克市和克拉马托尔斯克市，以及周边人口稠密、重兵设防的工业区。Why is Putin demanding the Donbas?普京为何执意要求获得顿巴斯地区？Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Moscow annexed four Ukrainian regions after holding referendums widely denounced as shams. These regions included Donetsk and Luhansk, which together make up the Donbas.俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰后，乌克兰的四个地区举行了被国际社会普遍谴责为骗局的全民公投，之后，俄罗斯强占了那四个地区，其中包括顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克，两者加在一起构成了顿巴斯地区。Of the four annexed regions, Russia fully controls only one, Luhansk.这四个被强占的地区中只有卢甘斯克被俄罗斯完全控制。Mr. Putin’s ground forces have fought in eight other Ukrainian regions since 2022, eventually withdrawing from some and occupying slivers of others.自2022年以来，普京的地面部队虽曾在乌克兰的其他八个地区作战，但最终撤出部分地区，仅占领零星区域。It is the Donbas, however, that is at the center of Mr. Putin’s vision of the war, one shaped by his belief in the historical unity of Russian speakers across the former Soviet Union.但顿巴斯地区才是普京这场战争愿景的核心所在，他的信念塑造了该愿景：以前属于苏联各地的讲俄语者在历史上是统一的。Mr. Putin has initially presented the invasion as the defense of the region’s pro-Russian separatists, who had fought against the government in Kyiv with the Kremlin’s military and financial support since 2014.普京已在侵略之初将其描述为保卫顿巴斯地区亲俄分裂势力的行动，自2014年起，这些分裂势力一直在克里姆林宫的军事和财力支持下对抗乌克兰政府。That pledge makes control of the Donbas a crucial condition for Mr. Putin to declare the job done in Ukraine, said Konstantin Remchukov, an editor in Moscow with Kremlin ties.与克里姆林宫有联系的莫斯科编辑康斯坦丁·雷姆丘科夫说，这个承诺让控制顿巴斯地区成为普京宣布完成乌克兰军事行动的一个关键条件。俄罗斯2022年宣布吞并包括卢甘斯克在内的四个乌克兰地区后，卢甘斯克民众上街表示支持。Mr. Remchukov and other Kremlin commentators have speculated that Mr. Putin may be willing to trade other occupied territory to get the rest of the Donbas.雷姆丘科夫和其他克里姆林宫评论员推测，普京可能愿意用其他被俄罗斯占领的土地交换顿巴斯地区仍由乌克兰控制的部分。“Donetsk is perceived as way more ‘ours’ than Dnipro, Sumy or Kharkiv,” said Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political scientist and former Kremlin adviser, referring to Ukrainian regions with a limited presence of Russian troops.“相较于第聂伯罗、苏梅或哈尔科夫，顿涅茨克更被视为‘我们的土地’，”莫斯科的政治学者谢尔盖·马尔科夫在谈到被俄罗斯部分占领的乌克兰地区时说，他曾任克里姆林宫顾问。What are Putin’s claims based on?普京的要求有什么依据？The Donbas has been contested since Ukraine first emerged as a state in the early 20th century, when Ukrainian nationalists, Communists and Russian monarchists battled for the region’s industrial riches in a chaotic period after the Bolshevik Revolution.自从乌克兰在20世纪初以国家形式出现以来，顿巴斯地区就一直是各方争夺的对象。在布尔什维克革命后的混乱时期，乌克兰民族主义者、共产党人和拥护君主制度的俄罗斯人曾为争夺这个地区的工业财富而战。Most of the region’s population was Ukrainian until Stalin’s campaigns of forced industrialization and terror led to the migration of Russian workers to the region’s coal mines and factories, mass killing of Ukrainian farmers and the suppression of Ukrainian language.顿巴斯地区人口的绝大多数曾是乌克兰人，直到斯大林推行强制性的工业化运动和恐怖统治，导致俄罗斯工人大量移民到该地区的煤矿和工厂，乌克兰的农民被大规模屠杀，乌克兰语遭到系统性压制。By the time the Soviet Union collapsed, about two-thirds of residents of the Donbas considered Russian their first language, according to census data. Russian cultural identity and the language became even more dominant during the first decades after Ukrainian independence.据人口普查数据，到苏联解体时，约三分之二的顿巴斯居民视俄语为他们的第一语言。在乌克兰独立后的最初几十年里，对俄罗斯文化的认同以及俄语的地位甚至进一步强化。About 90 percent of Donbas voters cast ballots for Viktor F. Yanukovych, a pro-Russian candidate, in Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election. The toppling of Mr. Yanukovych, then president, by protesters in Kyiv four years later led Mr. Putin to seize Crimea from Ukraine and engineer an insurgency in the Donbas.在乌克兰2010年的总统选举中，约90%的顿巴斯选民将选票投给了亲俄罗斯的候选人维克托·亚努科维奇。四年后，时任总统的亚努科维奇被基辅的抗议者推翻，促使普京从乌克兰手中夺走了克里米亚，并在顿巴斯地区策划叛乱。The insurgency created an anti-Russian backlash in the region. In Ukraine’s last presidential election, in 2019, the Ukrainian-held part of Donbas voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Zelensky, a Russian speaker who promised to bring peace without sacrificing Ukrainian sovereignty.这场叛乱在该地区引发了反俄情绪。在乌克兰2019年的上次总统大选中，居住在顿巴斯地区乌克兰控制部分的选民以压倒性多数把选票投给了泽连斯基，泽连斯基会说俄语，他承诺给该地区带来和平，同时不牺牲乌克兰的主权。Mr. Putin, meanwhile, was turning to increasingly bellicose nationalism to try to rally domestic support after years of economic stagnation. His propaganda machine tried to rally Russians to the cause of the Donbas, a path that eventually led to a full-scale war.与此同时，面对多年经济停滞，普京正在求助于越来越好战的民族主义情绪，以争取国内的支持。他的宣传机器试图让俄罗斯人为顿巴斯团结起来，这条道路最终导致了全面战争。These propaganda efforts never achieved wide appeal in Russia.这些宣传从未在俄罗斯得到广泛认同。An independent poll conducted a few days before the invasion found that just a quarter of Russians supported bringing Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation.一项在入侵的几天前进行的独立民意调查显示，只有四分之一的俄罗斯人支持将顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克纳入俄联邦。乌克兰波克罗夫斯克市为减缓俄罗斯军队去年11月的攻势设置了障碍物。Will Putin stop at the Donbas?普京会止步于顿巴斯吗？Mr. Putin has periodically alluded to annexing other parts of Ukraine, leading Ukrainian officials and many Western politicians and analysts to argue that the war would continue after Russia takes the Donbas, whether by force or diplomacy.普京已多次间接提到要吞并乌克兰的其他地区，这使乌克兰官员以及许多西方政界人士和分析人士认为，无论是以武力手段还是外交手段，在俄罗斯占领顿巴斯后，战争仍将继续。Their views are shared by Russian nationalists and many Russian soldiers, who have called on Mr. Putin to carry on fighting for the rest of the land in the two other annexed regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.他们的观点得到了俄罗斯民族主义者和许多俄罗斯士兵的认同，他们呼吁普京为拿下另外两个被俄罗斯强占地区——赫尔松和扎波罗热——尚未到手的土地，将战争进行下去。Other pro-war commentators have said Russia would keep fighting until toppling the government of Mr. Zelensky and installing a more pliant one. Many independent analysts, however, doubt whether Russia has the economic and military resources to press its offensive much farther beyond the Donbas. The Russian economy is stagnating, and its revenues are falling. This will make it difficult for the Kremlin to maintain the current pace of the fighting into the next year without significantly reducing the Russians’ living standards.其他主战派评论员表示，俄罗斯将持续打下去，直到推翻泽连斯基政府，并扶植一个更顺从俄罗斯的政府。但许多独立分析人士对俄罗斯是否有足够的经济和军事资源，将攻势推向顿巴斯以外的更远地区持怀疑态度。俄罗斯经济正在停滞，财政收入不断减少。这意味着，如果不大幅降低俄罗斯民众的生活水平，克里姆林宫将难以把当前的战争节奏维持到明年。Mr. Putin’s authoritarian rule and weakening economic outlook may persuade him to settle for the Donbas, at least for now, according to some analysts.据一些分析人士认为，至少从目前来看，普京的威权统治和越来越糟的经济前景也许会促使他在得到顿巴斯后结束战争。“Russian society is in such a deplorable state that it would be willing to accept almost any outcome of the war,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian politics expert at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “We can imagine various degrees of discontent from certain marginal segments of society — “ultra-patriots” and the likes of them — but the Kremlin can manage it.”“俄罗斯社会现在处于如此糟糕的状态，以至于它会愿意接受几乎任何战争结果，”在卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心研究俄罗斯政治的专家塔蒂亚娜·斯塔诺瓦娅说。“我们可以想象某些社会边缘群体——例如‘极端爱国者’之类的人——会表现出不同程度的不满，但克里姆林宫可以应付。”Steven Erlanger自柏林、Constant Méheut自乌克兰基辅对本文有报道贡献。Anatoly Kurmanaev报道俄罗斯及其在入侵乌克兰后的转变。翻译：Cindy Hao点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site