SCENARIO STUDY: Bullish or Bearish?USD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYfinancetranceHello fellow traders! Here’s a fresh, USD/JPY plan that blends 4-hour technicals with today’s macro/news flow, plus the most recent trader and bank sentiment. Time to get happy! USD/JPY for Aug 15, 2025, U.S. morning/afternoon 4H structure: After a slide that tested ~146.2–146.4 support, the USD/JPY keeps running into 147.8 and 148.5 as notable 4H hurdles. Macro/news today: U.S. PPI (July) surprised hotter, cooling talk of a 50 bp Fed cut (market leans 25 bp for Sep 17); Japan Q2 GDP beat aided the yen and BoJ-hike chatter. BoJ backdrop: July meeting opinions/outlook show a cautious tightening bias and discussion of resuming hikes; 10-yr JGB around ~1.5%. Positioning & sentiment (latest): CFTC JPY (non-commercial) net longs have fallen from mid-July peaks to ~82k (Aug 8). Retail (spot) sits near 54% long / 46% short. Banks’ bias (based on recent published views): UBS CIO guides for USD/JPY drifting lower through year-end (~140 by Dec 2025) as BoJ tightens gradually, and J.P. Morgan Research also expects weaker USD into late-2025 (USD/JPY ~141 Sep, 140 Dec). 4-hour levels to mark Support: 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 (deeper swing shelf). Resistance: 147.80, 148.50 (recent 4H/spot pivot and swing high). Scenario A — Bullish (rebound off support / corrective pop) Why it could play out: Hotter U.S. PPI trimmed aggressive-cut bets; if incoming U.S. data/fedspeak doesn’t further dent yields, a corrective USD bounce can lift price from support toward overhead supply! Go Bulls? :D Bullish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 146.40–146.70 on a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence near S1. (Structure band per the 4H map.) Stop: 145.95 (clean break of the lower shelf). Take Profit 1: 147.80 (first supply). Take Profit 2: 148.50 (recent high / strong supply). Respect Supports: 146.40–146.20, then 146.00. Resistances to fade/scale: 147.80, 148.50. Indicative R:R: from 146.60 risk ~65 pips to stop for ~+120 pips to TP2 (≈1:1.8), +120–190 pips if extension through 148.5. Scenario B — Bearish (trend continuation from resistance) Why it could play out: 4H downswing remains intact below 147.8/148.5; BoJ tone leans cautious-hawkish, Japan data firmed (GDP), while CFTC shows less crowded JPY longs (reduced squeeze risk). UBS/JPM public pieces lean medium-term lower USD/JPY. Bearish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 147.80–148.00 on a 4H rejection wick / failure swing at R1. Stop: 148.60 (invalidate above R2 swing high). TP1: 147.00 (recent intraday base). TP2: 146.20–146.40 (key 4H demand). Resistances to lean on: 147.80, 148.50. Supports to target: 147.00, 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 if momentum accelerates. Go Bears? :D BUT WAIT.....Which is more probable now? As for the team here at How To (dot) Forex, we are collectively leaning bearish (Scenario B) over the next few sessions. And, here is why.... Structure: Price remains capped beneath 147.8/148.5 on the 4H map. Macro skew: Hot PPI pared back “big cut” bets but markets still favor a 25 bp cut; meanwhile Japan GDP beat + BoJ talk of possible resuming hikes is JPY-supportive. Sentiment: Retail near 50/50 (slight long) and CFTC net JPY longs off the highs → fewer asymmetric squeeze dynamics for upside USD. What are the banks saying? Recent UBS and JPM predictions point to lower USD/JPY into year-end, aligning with fade-rallies bias unless price reclaims R2 decisively. _________________________________________________ OPINION AND COMMENTARY: we prefer fade-rally shorts into 147.8–148.0 unless a 4H close above 148.5 flips bias. If you see a strong 4H basing signal at 146.2–146.4, the bullish corrective setup is valid — just keep targets conservative at 147.8/148.5. If you have questions, or want to see a specific type of analysis not presented here, leave us a comment below. Thank you for reading. We appreciate your support. Happy trading! _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading. If you are new to trading, consider practicing with a free paper trading account. Ask your broker for details.