Forex Market Weekly Review.....plus thoughts on the week ahead US Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYjohnelfedforexblog As with many recent weeks, the week starting Monday 11 August had an overall positive risk environment. A tentative US / CHINA trade truce, hope for peace in the UKRAINE and MR BESSENT pushing for a 0.5bp FED rate cut, all contributed to the positivity. Although 'soft' data from China did seem to dent sentiment for the AUD and NZD. It was a mixed week for the USD, speculation of multiple cuts before year end ensured the dollar began the week on the back foot. In line CPI data didn't dent the rate cut narrative. But, PPI did, a higher than expected number saw all the the USD weakness unwind and it appears MR BESSENT'S call for 0.5bp cut is out of the window. And it's back to uncertainty regarding the pace of upcoming FED rate cuts. That uncertainty could be given clarity at the upcoming JACKSON HOLE event, MR POWELL'S speech is likely to create volatility and the USD could be tradable in either direction, depending on if the FED chair sticks to his 'wait and see' approach (USD positive) or softens and indicates more than one US rate cut before year end (USD negative). The GBP had another positive week following the recent 'hawkish cut' and positive data, another round of positive data made the GBP a good long option throughout the week. The EUR also had a good week, at (or close to the end) of the ECB cutting cycle and hopes for peace in the UKRAINE ensures sentiment for the EUR is relatively bouyed. Over the last few weeks, I've been quietly enthused by JPY weakness. But we are still going to get periods of JPY strength when talk of a BOJ rate hike surfaces. JAPAN GDP data brought that conversation back to the fold this week. But ultimately, more often than not, I suspect the JPY will remain the 'go to risk on short'. On a personal note, it was another week of two trades. Early in the week, I didn't find myself looking at the charts at the right time to feel comfortable enough to place a USD short trade. I had to wait until Thursday to place a AUD JPY 'risk on trade' post US PPI. Arguably, the USD was the better long option, I was just unsure how sustained USD strength would be given the 'negative tide' the dollar had behind it pre PPI data. The trade stopped out as soft data from China coinceded with the JAPAN GDP. On Friday, post US retail sales data, I felt confident in a 'risk on' end to the week. Placing an AUD CHF long following 'soft data' from Switzerland. The trade was closed at break even after a fairly flat trading day. I have questioned myself whether I've been too rigid sticking with AUD long, particularly following the 'neutral cut', mixed data and the 'soft' CHINA data. Perhaps I should be more focused on the positivity surrounding the GBP and EUR. I begin the new week with a mild 'risk on' bias. But it's all eyes on Jackson hole.