August 18 Gold Trend and Trading Strategy:GOLD / US DOLLARPYTH:XAUUSDGold_Entry_Point Core Drivers Expectations of a Fed rate cut have cooled PPI data exceeded expectations + hawkish comments from Fed officials (Daly opposed a 50 basis point rate cut, Mousallem warned of rising inflation) → The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 85%. A stronger US dollar is suppressing gold. Geopolitical Risks Uncertainty surrounding the "Trump-Putin meeting": If the negotiations go poorly, risk aversion could be triggered, but the current driving force remains Fed policy. Key Technical Signals Trend Structure Monthly Chart: Four consecutive bearish candlestick patterns. Rebounds present selling opportunities. Ultimate target: $3,000-2,950 (corresponding to the tariff trigger point). Daily Chart: A large bearish candlestick engulfs the previous two days' rally, resulting in a MACD death cross. Resistance shifts down to 3,346-3,356, with support at 3,312-3,281. Short-term (4H/1H): A rebound is possible after the oversold period, but the 3347-3365 level is a strong resistance zone. Maintain a bearish stance until it breaks through. Bull-Bear Trading Points Short Defense Line: 3350 (Strong-Weak Divide between Asian and European Sessions) → 3365 (Key Risk Control Level). Bull Defense Line: 3330 (Psychological Support) → 3312 (Previous Low) → 3300 (Round Mark). Today's Trading Strategy 1. Short-Leading (Priority Strategy) Aggressive: Short lightly on a rebound to 3345-50, stop loss at 3355, target 3330 → 3312. Conservative Short: Short at 3355-3358, stop loss at 3365, target 3330. Hold until 3290 after a breakout. 2. Bullish Counterattack (Participate with Caution) Short-term Rebound: Buy on first touch of 3312-3315, stop loss at 3305, target 3330-40. Deep bottom fishing: long at 3290-3393, stop loss at 3280, target at 3310-20 (needs to be coordinated with US market data). 3. Key Risk Management Points Strong breakout above 3365: Exit short positions and wait and see if the resistance level of 3375-3380 is tested. Summary Main Trend: The bearish trend remains unchanged; shorting opportunities exist at rebound highs. Potential Market Change: If bulls strongly defend the 3300 level, a short-term rebound may be triggered, but shorting at high levels is still the primary strategy in the medium term.