Bonds, Breakdowns, and Powell: This Week’s ZT Play2-Year T-Note FuturesCBOT:ZT1!stakkdBeen watching this 2Y Note coil under pressure all week, and it’s starting to look like a loaded trap door. Price is compressing inside a descending triangle, pinned under VWAP and a full EMA stack (9/21/50 bearish alignment). We've now had multiple failed rotations into 103'18⁶–103'19² the value zone top and each one got slapped. With the POC sitting right at 103'18⁶, there’s clear rejection of “fair value,” and price is now grinding against a low-volume shelf at 103'17⁸. You don’t want to be standing there when it gives out. Confluence - Structure: Descending triangle under VWAP = squeeze and a release setup. - Volume Profile: POC at 103'18⁶, low-volume gap under 103'17⁸ = fast-move zone. - Fib Map: 0.00% aligns with triangle base, 100% extension = clean TP2 target at demand. - Trend: Bearish momentum confirmed by EMA stack and failure to reclaim structure. Game Plan - Short Bias Trigger: Break and close below 103'17⁸ - TP1: 103'17³ — Minor imbalance clean-up - TP2: 103'16⁵ — Demand base from July 16 - Optional Runner: 103'16¹ — if we flush and volume picks up - Invalidation: Close above 103'19² or reclaim of 103'20⁶ (mid-structure reclaim trigger) This Week’s Risk Events - Wed 08:30 ET: GDP & FOMC — Fed tone could shift rate expectations - Thu 08:30 ET: Core PCE — market will react to any inflation surprise - Fri 08:30 ET: NFP Jobs Report — high volatility risk; watch pre- and post-breakout conditions These events don’t invalidate the setup, but they’ll decide whether this breaks with a whimper or a bang. This isn't just a random compression, it's happening right as key macro flows hit. Structure says “bearish,” volume profile confirms it, and the macro calendar could be the spark. If 103'17⁸ cracks, I’m looking to play the fast-move path into demand. No FOMO if it doesn’t go it’s all about data, structure, and flow. If I'm Wrong Price reclaims 103'19² or closes above 103'20⁶ this invalidates the short idea. In that case, I step aside and reassess no hero trades here.