Country: Kenya Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key MessagesIn late 2024, FEWS NET projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes would likely persist through May 2025 in pastoral areas of Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana River, Samburu, Wajir, and Mandera, as well as in the marginal agricultural zones of Kitui and Makueni. These projections were based on past and forecasted weather shocks, including the below-average October-December 2024 short rains, which led to poor cropping conditions and low livestock birth rates and productivity. As a result, food access among many poor households in these areas was lower than normal, and FEWS NET estimated that 2.5 to 2.99 million people (5-6 percent of the population) would require humanitarian food assistance through May 2025. However, the March-May 2025 long rains were above average and generally favorable, leading to better food security outcomes than initially expected. These improvements may be short-lived, though, given the forecast for below-average October to December short rains.In the pastoral areas, the above-average long rains improved the availability of pastures, browse, and typical water sources, enabling pastoral households to keep livestock within normal wet season grazing areas where grazing and watering distances are within average. In July, eVIIRS Normalized Difference Vegetative Index data show near-average vegetation conditions. However, persistent above-average land surface temperatures are expected to accelerate the decline of these resources through the rest of the June-September dry season, and as a result, livestock movements into dry season grazing areas are likely to occur atypically early, starting in August. Low-intensity conflicts over access to rangeland resources are likely in conflict-prone areas such as parts of Turkana (Kalapata, Todonyang, Kaikor, Nakitongo, Nalapatui, Urum, and Kapedo), Samburu (Baragoi), and western parts of Marsabit.Despite the improvements, a significant number of poor households in the pastoral areas will continue to have limited incomes. Livestock sales and incomes will remain atypically low, despite the incentive of higher livestock sale prices, as herd sizes remain 15 to 55 percent above the five-year average following large losses in past droughts, and many pastoralists seek to rebuild herds. Total milk availability and sales will also remain lower than normal, despite the modest seasonal improvements during the upcoming short rains, as a result of these low herd sizes and expected low birth rates. Most poor pastoralists meet their food needs both through the consumption of livestock products and the purchase of maize on markets, funded by the sale of livestock. With income relatively lower and maize prices between average and upwards of 25 percent above average, purchasing power is lower than normal. This is reducing the ability of very poor pastoralists to meet their basic food needs.In most marginal agricultural areas, poor households’ income is expected to be lower than normal through December due to limited crop sales resulting from the below-average long rains production amid poor temporal rainfall distribution. This below-average production will be seen across maize, beans, green grams, and cowpea crops in Kitui, Makueni, Meru North, Lamu, and Taita Taveta. Poor households in these locations will deplete food stocks early, increasing reliance on markets until the short rains harvests in December. Maize prices are similar to the five-year average in areas, suggesting near-normal food access, though effective purchasing power will still be lower than normal, given this lower income from crop sales and relatively limited ability to expand income from petty trade and the sale of firewood and charcoal. As such, there is still concern that poor households will be unable to meet their food needs in these areas.Conversely, production prospects are more favorable in the marginal agricultural areas of Embu and Tharaka Nithi, and significantly above average production is likely in Kilifi and Kwale. Similiarly, in the unimodal high and medium potential areas of North Rift and Western Kenya, average to slightly above-average production is expected between October and early December. In the medium potential areas of the South Rift, average to slightly above-average maize production is expected between July and August. Average production of beans has been realized in the North and South Rift areas and medium potential areas of Central and Western Kenya, except in Nyanza, where production is below average due to waterlogging from excessive rains. Across these locations, poor households are largely expected to meet their food needs through local production, typical labor activities, and average food prices.In the major urban centers, where poor households meet their food needs largely through the purchase of staple foods funded by income earned through casual labor, food access is currently near normal to somewhat lower than normal, but expected to tighten through the remainder of the lean season due to persistent below-average income-earning opportunities in the informal sector. Maize prices are average in Kisumu and 14 and 17 percent above average in Nairobi and Eldoret, respectively. The availability of the unimodal production from August and cross-border imports from Tanzania will moderate staple food prices at average to slightly above-average levels, and slightly improve food access constraints among the poor households.Food assistance needs are expected to increase gradually from July through October 2025, consistent with the long lean season (July-September). In pastoral areas, needs will be driven by reduced milk availability for household consumption and reduced income from milk and livestock sales, constraining household access to food. In most of the marginal agricultural areas, needs will be driven by below-average household food availability resulting from below-average long rains production and reduced income from both crop sales and agricultural labor opportunities. In urban areas, needs are likely to be driven by high staple food prices and persistent below-average income-earning opportunities in the informal sector as economic conditions remain poor. Needs during the outlook period are likely to peak at the end of September, albeit lower than the peak needs in February 2025.