Countries: Burundi, World Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key MessagesIn late 2024, FEWS NET projected Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and the Imbo Plains livelihood zones through the October to January main lean season, driven by below-average agricultural production and related lower agricultural and casual labor opportunities, and rising food prices. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes were projected to persist through May 2025 in the Northern Lowlands and Eastern Lowlands, driven by macroeconomic challenges, limited labor and trade opportunities, and below-average 2025 Season A harvests that reduced food access. Largely within these areas of relatively higher concern, FEWS NET estimated around 500,000 to 750,000 people would likely need humanitarian food assistance, with needs peaking from October to December. Populations of particular concern included poor and very poor households, refugees, returnees, and flood-displaced households.Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones will remain of highest concern within Burundi for acute food insecurity, with specific concern for very poor households that have limited access to income-earning opportunities. In the Imbo Plains, this is due to continued inaccessibility of cross-border opportunities linked to the ongoing conflict in neighboring eastern DRC. In the Northern Lowlands this is because of below-average agricultural production and the closure of borders with Rwanda that is restricting the movement of people and food. Of particular concern are roughly 36,000 households in the Northern Lowlands that have suffered consecutive crop failures during Seasons A and Season B in 2025, resulting from localized below-average rainfall.Despite localized production losses among poor households in Northern Lowlands, the June to July Season B harvest, which contributes 50 percent of the annual crop production, is expected to be near-average nationally. Production benefited from above-average rainfall since April, which played a key role in above-average harvests of cereals (rice and sorghum) and tubers (sweet potatoes, potatoes, and cassava), although resulting in below-average bean yields. Government assistance in the form of subsidies for fertilizer, maize seeds, and technical support supported the near-average crop production.Low foreign currency reserves are driving traders to increasingly rely on parallel markets to fund imports, resulting in reduced import capacity that ultimately contributes to higher prices for imported foods and a country-wide fuel shortage. This is reflected in some of the highest inflation rates in Burundi’s history, at 45.5 percent in April 2025, up from 12 percent last year. Ultimately, this negatively impacts poor households’ food access by contributing to higher staple food prices that are currently 10-60 percent above last year and 40-120 percent above the five-year average.While some local populations are likely to need food assistance amid weather and economic shocks, of highest concern is the need among the quickly growing population of refugees and asylum-seekers from the DRC. The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC has driven an influx of refugees, with approximately 70,000 new refugees arriving in Burundi between January and June 2025, bringing the total number of registered refugees to around 160,000. About 20,000 of the new arrivals have settled within communities in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, adding further strain on already-limited food and income sources in this area.Since March 2025, WFP has provided monthly food rations to refugees at about 50 percent of daily kilocalorie needs, down from 70 percent in 2024. WFP reports that assistance will likely be fully suspended by December if new funding does not become available. This represents an extension from an initial projection of November, but only achieved through reducing the number of beneficiaries. In June, WFP reported providing food assistance to approximately 78,000 refugees and asylum seekers; 760 Burundian returnees; nearly 56,000 individuals affected by recent weather shocks; 10,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls; and between 13,500-27,000 malnourished children. The ongoing conflict in the DRC is likely to result in more refugee arrivals and rising humanitarian needs.