Country: Zimbabwe Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Key MessagesAs of late 2024, FEWS NET anticipated widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across Zimbabwe through early 2025, aligning with the peak of the 2024/25 lean season. Following the 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought and resulting poor harvest, many households across the country had little to no food stocks by late 2024, even in surplus-producing northern areas such as the Mashonaland provinces. High food prices and below-average income significantly limited market access for poor households, leading to food consumption deficits. Areas of highest concern included the typical deficit-producing districts in the south, west, east, and far north. FEWS NET projected that atypically high levels of humanitarian food assistance needs would likely persist through May 2025.In Zimbabwe, the typical lean season spans from November to February. For the 2025/26 season, a delayed onset of the lean season is expected in most areas as household food stocks are likely to last longer than normal due to the favorable 2025 harvest. Below-average food prices are expected to support access to food for poor households. However, households in some districts within typical deficit-producing areas are expected to exhaust their own-produced food stocks by December. In these areas, poor households will likely face decreased access to market foods in late 2025. Food assistance needs are expected to steadily increase through at least December; however, the needs are likely to be significantly lower than last year, though likely to trend at near normal levels.The above-average 2025 harvest, supported by the generally favorable October 2024 to March 2025 seasonal rainfall, significantly improved household access to food countrywide. The 2025 harvest is expected to support household food access through at least December 2025. The Government of Zimbabwe’s Second Round Crops, Livestock, and Fisheries Assessment Report estimates 2025 national maize production to be around 260 and 160 percent higher than the 2024 production and the 10-year average, respectively. Overall, 2025 food crop production is estimated to be 290 percent higher than last year, contributing to enhanced countrywide household access to food from own production.Maize grain prices decreased in July 2025 compared to the same time last year, countrywide, with prices at Mbare Market (Harare) 40 percent lower than July 2024. According to key informants, rural markets in both surplus- and deficit-producing areas reported a price decline between 40-55 percent compared to same period last year. The lower than last year and a near-normal price trend is expected to continue through December 2025. Household income in cash crop-producing areas is supported by above-average tobacco sales: 350 million kilograms (kg) sold as of July compared to 228 million kg last year. Cotton production is also above average (50 percent higher than last year). The Agricultural Marketing Authority reports by the end of July, that farmers had sold 25 million kg of seed cotton, 90 percent above the sales same period last year.Since early 2025, the local currency has remained relatively stable, contributing to price stability for most essential commodities and services. According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, the ZWG/USD parallel market premium declined from around 100 percent in September 2024 to 28 percent by the end of June 2025. Most rural and urban households continue to use informal markets – primarily USD-denominated, and ZAR-dominated in the southern regions – for purchasing both food and non-food items.Favorable pasture and water availability are expected to persist in most areas through the start of the 2025/26 rainy season and support fair to good livestock body conditions and prices, enhancing income, particularly in southern and western districts. Favorable livestock-to-grain terms of trade are anticipated for households selling their livestock or livestock products to obtain grain, compared to the same time last year, when grain prices were above normal and livestock (mainly cattle) prices were below normal. The expected fair to good livestock conditions will also likely enhance draught power services and income, as well as increase area planted during the start of the 2025/26 rainfall and agricultural season, positively impacting agricultural labor opportunities.Following a favorable 2024/25 rainfall season and improved water availability, households are expected to engage in typical income-generating activities through December 2025, including selling surplus food crops, resale of food crops by traders, casual labor, construction work, and vegetable production and sales. Income from these sources will most likely be average. In both rural and urban areas, income from petty trade, remittances, and artisanal mining is expected to be average and common for most households.International forecast models indicate average rainfall is most likely at the start of the 2025/26 rainy season. The favorable start of the season will most likely support the regeneration of water sources and pastures. Furthermore, normal household engagement in agricultural and other livelihood activities associated with the 2025/26 agricultural season is expected.