Country: Nigeria Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key MessagesProlonged conflict, poor economic conditions, and weather shocks (such as dry spells and flooding) continue to be the main drivers of acute food insecurity in Nigeria. As of late 2024, FEWS NET projected widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes across the conflict-affected areas of North East, North West, and North Central Nigeria through May 2025. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) was projected for inaccessible areas of the North East, including Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama Local Government Areas (LGAs), driven by additional factors including limited mobility, little or no access to functional markets, limited to no food production and income-generating options, and depleted coping capacity. FEWS NET projected that between 13.0-13.9 million people were in need of humanitarian food assistance through May 2025.In 2025, attacks by insurgents escalated in the North East, with increasing use of suicide operations, drones, and improvised explosive devices targeting both the civilian population and military formations. In January, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) executed at least 40 civilians, mainly farmers and fishermen in the Dumba community in the Lake Chad area. In June, there was a reported suicide attack in Konduga fish market of Borno State, killing at least 12 people. The renewed attacks by Boko Haram and ISWAP across Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states have continued to drive population displacement in the North East, limiting household access to fields, livestock, and other livelihood assets. About 23,801 internally displaced persons (IDPs) were reported in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states.The North West continues to face persistent attacks by bandits and militant groups, while attacks by armed herders continue in the North Central states, leading to displacement, loss of livelihoods, and limiting household access to farmland. Like the North East, attacks in both regions have increased since the start of the year and additionally outnumber those in the same period last year. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) flash reports recorded about 58,8228 IDPs and returnees across the North West and Central states between January and July. In June, over 100 civilians were killed by militants in the Yelwata community of Benue State, displacing about 3,000 people. In July, an attack by armed bandits in Bukkuyum LGA, Zamfara State, led to the displacement of 58 people, according to the IOM DTM.Although the current annual headline inflation rate of 22.22 percent in June 2025 is lower than last year due to the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2009 to 2024, Nigeria’s annual inflation remains high, and prices continue to increase countrywide. Similarly, inflated transportation costs due to the sustained high price of petroleum and depreciation of the NGN continue to exacerbate the impact of the economic crisis on household income and expenditure. The persistently high cost of transportation has also continued to impact the movement of goods from the surplus-producing northern areas to the deficit-producing south and vice versa, leading to intra-regional changes in prices.Staple food prices across the country remain elevated and continue to follow seasonal trends, driven by low food production due to protracted conflict and high transportation costs. FEWS NET reported July 2025 prices of locally milled rice and white maize at 156,000 NGN and 85,000 NGN in Aba market, and at 131,000 NGN and 55,000 NGN in Dawanau market in Kano, respectively, an increase compared to the five-year average of 75,000 NGN and 45,000 NGN in Aba and 78,000 NGN and 39,000 NGN in Dawanau. Prices are lower than last year due to government intervention through an import waiver on staple foods, leading to increased market supply. However, staple food prices remain significantly above average and still out of reach for poor households. Access to food is further constrained by the ongoing lean season, characterized by depleted household food stocks from own production and increased household reliance on market purchases for food.Main season farming activities are ongoing. However, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) and FEWS NET, erratic seasonal climatic conditions such as flooding and dry spells are expected in parts of the north and are likely to impact seasonal progress. Dry spells from June to early July in parts of the North East, including Borno and Yobe, led to late planting and raised concern for a shortened growing window. Several reported cases of flooding across the country, including the late May 2025 flood incident in Mokwa, Niger State, led to over 100 deaths, loss of livelihoods and farmland, and displacement. In April, about 10 people were killed and 5,000 farmers reported loss of their rice farms in parts of Niger and Kwara states due to floods caused by water release from the Jebba Hydroelectric Dam. Limited access to farmland due to insecurity has also hampered main season activities in the North East.As the ongoing lean season progresses, acute food insecurity is expected to deteriorate countrywide through September 2025. Between October and December 2025, food insecurity is expected to ease seasonally as food availability improves. The main harvest is expected to increase food consumption for households able to engage in the main agricultural season. However, acute food insecurity is expected to be worse and persist in conflict-affected areas of the north, where household food availability and access are limited by increased levels of conflict. Reduced food assistance distributions are expected for these households as key humanitarian partners (including the WFP) scale back operations, and conflict limits humanitarian access. Inaccessible areas in the North East, including Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama, are expected to experience extreme levels of acute food insecurity amid continuous attacks by insurgents that limit household ability to engage in food production and other livelihood activities. In the North West, populations affected by banditry in Katsina, Sokoto, and Zamfara states will likely face widening food consumption gaps. Agricultural activities are expected to be severely impacted in the North Central states of Benue, Niger, and Plateau, where militants continue to attack, restricting household engagement in typical livelihood activities.