Country: Afghanistan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key MessagesAs of late 2024, FEWS NET projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across much of Afghanistan between October 2024 and May 2025 – particularly in the western, central highlands, and northern regions of the country – primarily due to the prolonged recovery from three years of consecutive drought and a poor labor market due to high competition. During the peak of the lean season (February to April 2025), FEWS NET estimated that 8.0 to 8.9 million people would require emergency food assistance countrywide. While most households are currently able to access own-produced food from the ongoing harvest and from markets according to their income, some poor and returnee households are likely facing food consumption deficits due to poor own production following unfavorable rainfall, as well as below-average access to income-earning opportunities amid a weak economy.The number of people facing food consumption deficits is expected to steadily rise through at least late 2025 due to the combination of drought, increased pressure on the labor market, and decreasing income. Poor and returnee households are expected to have limited to non-existent food stocks amid below-average income. Household purchasing power is expected to be below normal, as the labor market cannot support the available laborers, and decreased income from livestock is expected amid fair to poor livestock conditions and productivity. The likely seasonal decline of casual labor opportunities at the start of winter will coincide with poor and returnee households exhausting their food stocks and constraining the income needed for market access.The population returning to Afghanistan, notably from Iran and Pakistan, surged in late June and July to 500,000 returnees amid ongoing deportation policies forcing Afghans to return to their country. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), nearly 2.1 million people have returned to Afghanistan from both Iran and Pakistan between January and the third week of July. The Iranian government set an updated deadline of September 6 (previously July 6) for Afghans to self-deport, and it is estimated that 25,000 to 30,000 Afghans are deported from Iran weekly. In the first half of July, nearly 340,000 Afghans returned from Iran alone. Border posts in the west and southwest are overwhelmed with returnees, as most stay in these areas for several days before moving on to their places of origin. Returnees are expected to continue to return to Afghanistan and face difficulty reintegrating.The large influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan is putting pressure on overstretched resources, particularly an already saturated labor market. Returnees to Afghanistan need to rebuild their livelihoods and find shelter, especially in late 2025 as winter approaches. According to UNHCR, the top self-reported needs among most arrivals (indicated by over 75 percent of surveyed returnees) are food and housing. However, in the coming months, many Afghan returnees are expected to face difficulty accessing income for their basic needs, including food, due to limited income-earning opportunities and difficulty reintegrating to access livelihood activities.Precipitation from October 2024 to May 2025 was marked by drought conditions in the north and dryness across the rest of the country, negatively impacting the ongoing harvest. This marked the fourth consecutive year of drought conditions following the precipitation season. Overall, national wheat production is likely to be below average, with sub-national variations dependent on irrigation potential and the timing of precipitation during the season. Rainfed production in northern and northeastern areas of the country was notably affected. Southern areas relied on groundwater extraction to meet water requirements, likely resulting in wheat yields either above average or comparable to last year. There are already reports of drought-induced displacement in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, with households being displaced due to water shortages.The dry conditions across the country have resulted in very poor rangeland and pasture conditions, driving declines in livestock body condition and productivity and resulting in atypical livestock migration, especially in the northern and western agropastoral zones. The continued high temperatures will likely drive further declines in pasture availability. There is high concern for fodder shortages in late summer and early fall, and livestock body conditions and production are likely to decline further in the coming months. Some atypical livestock deaths are likely, which will impact food access for pastoral households that rely on livestock as a key income source.The second season harvest is expected to start at the end of August in eastern areas; however, dry conditions are negatively impacting maize and rice development. The lack of irrigation water and above-average temperatures are also negatively impacting the development and subsequent harvest of maize and rice crops. Farmers are growing increasingly worried about the risk of total crop losses, especially in downstream areas in the east. Monsoon precipitation began atypically early in May 2025 with above-average rainfall in the eastern, southern, and southeastern provinces, leading to flooding and some damage to agricultural infrastructure. In particular, the destruction of some irrigation areas and standing crops from flooding is likely to further negatively impact the second-season harvest.Below-average rainfall is expected at the start of the winter season from October 2025 to January 2026, combined with declining snowpack and snow water volumes. Above-average temperatures are likely to persist, with extreme temperatures expected through December 2025, likely to worsen vegetation stress and water shortages in rangeland and agricultural areas until precipitation begins. Water availability remains limited overall despite stronger monsoon activity in Southeast Asia, posing risks to crop yields and hydrological recovery.Afghanistan’s economy experienced modest growth of 2.5 percent in 2024, according to the World Bank, marking a second consecutive year of expansion. However, the recovery is insufficient to significantly reduce unemployment. Despite easing headline annual inflation due to lower food and energy prices, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.4 percent in May 2025, signaling modest increases in costs for non-food commodities. Non-food price increases may further erode household income and limit the ability to purchase adequate food, even as food prices remain relatively stable. The persistently weakened economy is further strained due to Afghanistan remaining outside of the formal global banking sector. Combined with the large influx of Afghan returnees, local markets will face added pressure, household income to purchase market foods food will likely be strained.Staple food prices remain generally stable in June 2025 due to consistent imports from steady regional supply, stable currency value (AFN), and the ongoing wheat harvest, which is supporting market supply. While food prices have shown minimal changes in the last year, wheat prices are 27 percent lower than the five-year average. The Food Security and Agriculture Cluster food basket price, which includes wheat flour, pulses, rice, cooking oil, and salt, also remained stable month-on-month and compared to the same time last year. Similar to wheat prices, the food basket decreased by nearly 15 percent compared to the five-year average.The mass forced deportation of Afghan refugees from Iran and Pakistan has put further pressure on an already weak labor market. The influx of returnees has caused a surge in labor supply and competition for the already limited labor opportunities, especially in the central highland and northern areas affected by the drought. According to the WFP, terms of trade for unskilled labor declined slightly by 6 percent compared to the same time last year, but remain over 20 percent higher than the five-year average. While purchasing power has not declined notably in recent months, many poor households remain outside of the labor market and have limited ability to access income.According to the WFP, around 1.8 million vulnerable people were reached in Afghanistan with 4,800MT of food in May 2025. WFP reached 400,000 vulnerable people with 5,700MT of food and 1 million USD in cash assistance in June 2025. This decline is predominantly attributed to typical seasonal declines in food aid distributions. 185,000 Returnees from Pakistan and Iran received fortified biscuits, and 326,000 USD in cash for food was given to 27,000 returnees. In total, the WFP assisted 1.8 million people with 9,000mt of food and 1.4 million USD in cash-based transfers in June 2025. The WFP 2025 Afghanistan humanitarian assistance plan is only 5 percent funded for July to December, raising concerns about those in need of assistance and the likely increase in that population as winter begins in late 2025.