Reddit (RDDT) – Technical + Earnings + Macro Breakdown Reddit, Inc.BATS:RDDTBenRosesJust finished breaking down Reddit (RDDT) after today’s big move, and I think it’s worth laying out the full picture — technicals, earnings, macro — because this one’s got real substance underneath the headline jump. TL;DR: this is a real breakout, not meme hype, but it's happening in a fragile macro context, and you absolutely shouldn't chase it blindly. Let’s start with the chart. Today’s candle, so far, is textbook bullish — almost marubozu-style — opening near the lows and closing near the highs, up 4.74% on serious volume. No upper wick, which means buyers were in control all day. This came right after earnings and broke out of a multi-month range that had been holding since April. Price smashed through the $170–175 zone, which was the prior swing high from March. That’s a legitimate breakout. And the volume confirms it’s not retail FOMO. Technically, it’s a continuation move, not a reversal, but it’s also coming at the tail end of a very sharp thrust. This is a bullish continuation pattern, but one where you start looking for digestion, not acceleration. Momentum-wise, everything is flashing green — but maybe too green. MACD just made a fresh bull cross with an expanding histogram, and RSI is screaming at 88.69. That’s extreme, no two ways about it. But when you get this kind of breakout on strong earnings, RSI can stay overbought for days or even weeks. The trend since May has been a clean stair-step move higher — no parabolic blow-off yet — but today might be the first sign of euphoria starting to creep in. If you’re a box fan, this move also fits the mold. The $110 to $175 range held from April through July, and we just broke out of that box with volume confirmation. Logic would project a target by adding the range width (~$65) to the breakout level — that puts a rough upside target at $240. Of course, these moves rarely go straight up — you usually see a break, a retest, and then a continuation. So don't expect a clean shot to $240. Still, the technical structure is legit. Now let’s zoom in on some Fib levels from the May swing low at $110 to today’s high of $191. If we get a pullback, the first dip zone is the 23.6% retracement at $171.52. That’s close to today’s breakout level, so watch that carefully. Below that, $157.27 (38.2%) is the major reload zone, and $150.50 (50%) is where trend-followers should probably stop out if it breaks with volume. On the upside, the 127.2% extension sits at $215.76, then 161.8% at $241.39, and finally 200% at $272. Realistically, $191 is acting as the first resistance cap, since it's the full 100% extension from the move. Now here’s where things get even more interesting — fundamentals. This earnings print was strong. No massaging, no fancy adjustments — just raw numbers. Revenue was up 78% year-over-year, hitting $500M. Net income? $89M GAAP. Yes, actual profits. And Reddit’s positioning in the AI narrative is no joke — they’re now the most cited domain for AI model training across the board. Wall Street is obsessed with “data moats” right now, and Reddit has one of the deepest UGC data pools available. Ads are booming too — ad revenue up 84% YoY. CFO basically said they’ve found the balance between growth and profitability, which ticks boxes for both value and growth investors. Bottom line: this is the quarter where Reddit starts getting re-rated from “weird social media” to “AI-leveraged data platform with real margins.” But — and this is important — macro risk is back. Today wasn’t just a feel-good market day. We got downward payroll revisions (which makes the labor picture look worse in hindsight), and tariffs are being reintroduced, which is never good for risk appetite — especially in tech. If yields spike or markets start pricing in more Fed tightening, high-growth names like Reddit will feel it. You can't ignore that RSI is already 88 — meaning if the macro starts rolling over, Reddit is at real risk of a fade purely due to liquidity rotation. So tactically, this is a setup where you respect the breakout, but you don’t chase it. First support is $171.52 — that’s your first pullback buy zone. Then $157.27 is your deeper dip/reload level. On the upside, $191 is resistance. If it breaks cleanly above and holds with volume, $215 is the next stop. If it slices below $157 with volume, that’s a red flag and probably invalidates the trend for now. Final take? RDDT is one of the best fundamental stories this quarter, and today’s move was backed by structure and volume. But we’re late in the thrust, macro is fragile, and sentiment is stretched. Be patient. Wait for a pullback or tight consolidation above $171. If that holds, $215+ is on deck. If it doesn’t, sit back and wait for the dust to settle — this trend isn’t dead, but it’s not invincible either.