储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2025年7月28日周六，台湾台北，立委庆祝罢免投票结果。 Ann Wang/ReutersTwo dozen opposition lawmakers in Taiwan have survived an extraordinary recall campaign on Saturday that had threatened to remove them from office, put more power in the president’s hands and add to tensions with Beijing.周六，台湾24名在野党立法委员挺过了一场不同寻常的罢免运动，这场运动原本可能将他们赶下台，增强总统手中的权力，并加剧与北京的紧张关系。If the recall effort had succeeded, the result could have flipped the balance of power in Taiwan’s legislature in favor of President Lai Ching-te, who wants Taiwan to forge a future separate from China, against the biggest opposition party that favors closer ties with Beijing.如果罢免成功，结果可能会让台湾立法院的权力平衡转向总统赖清德一方。他希望台湾未来脱离中国，而反对他的最大在野党则主张与北京建立更密切的关系。Its failure is a blow to Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, which had backed the recall campaign, and means the confrontation between Mr. Lai and Taiwan’s opposition parties in the legislature is likely to continue. Here is what happened:罢免失败对赖清德领导的民进党来说是一个打击，民进党支持这场罢免运动，这一结果也意味着赖清德与反对党在立法院的对峙很可能还将继续。以下是事件的经过：A Triumph or a Travesty of Democracy?民主的胜利，还是一场闹剧？No national-level legislatures worldwide have faced a recall effort as extensive as Taiwan’s, said Yanina Welp, a research fellow at the Graduate Institute in Geneva who studies recall initiatives.日内瓦国际与发展研究院研究罢免制度的研究员叶尼娜·维尔普表示，世界范围内还没有哪个国家级立法机构面临过像台湾这样大规模的罢免行动。Taiwan is one of the few democracies where voters can throw out elected representatives through such petitions, but previous campaigns were smaller and rarely successful. This weekend, two dozen Nationalist Party lawmakers faced recall votes; an additional seven will next month.台湾是少数几个选民可以通过请愿的方式罢免民选代表的民主政体之一，但过去的罢免行动规模较小，也鲜少成功。这个周末，有24位国民党立法委员面临罢免投票；还有另外七人将在下个月面临投票。To supporters, the “great recall” campaign has reflected the vigor of Taiwan’s democracy, which emerged in the 1980s after decades of authoritarian rule under the Nationalist Party. Although a successful campaign would have helped Mr. Lai, many activists promoting the recalls said they were acting independently.对支持者而言，这场“大罢免”行动体现了台湾民主的活力。台湾的民主是在20世纪80年代结束国民党几十年的威权统治后逐步建立起来的。尽管罢免行动的成功对赖清德有利，但许多推动罢免的活动人士称，他们是独立行事。“We’re building a decentralized grass-roots movement,” said Molly Kuo, an organizer of one of the recall efforts in New Taipei. “We’re witnessing a deepening of democracy.”“我们是在建立一个去中心化的草根运动，，”新北市一项罢免行动的组织者茉莉·郭（音）表示。“我们可以看到民主深化的一个轨迹。”本月，台北一场支持罢免行动的集会。台湾是少数几个选民可以通过请愿的方式罢免民选代表的民主政体之一。Opponents said the recall campaign was an abuse of a process that should be used sparingly.反对者则表示，“大罢免”是对应该谨慎使用的程序的滥用。“The ‘great recall’ movement is really an insult to voters,” said Lori Wu, a retired professor, who said she had voted against recalling her legislative representative in Taipei. “With these indiscriminate recalls now, it’s like everyone is unfit for office in your eyes.”“‘大罢免’其实是对选民的一种侮辱，”退休教授吴月珑说。她表示自己在台北投票反对罢免自己选区的立法委员。“现在是无差别式的罢免，所有人在你们眼中都是不适任的。”To set off a recall vote, campaigners must gather enough signatures in two rounds of petitions. (Rival petitions led by the Nationalist Party to recall lawmakers from Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party failed to reach that threshold.)要发起罢免投票，提案方必须在两轮请愿中收集到足够多的签名。（由国民党主导、试图罢免赖清德所属的民进党立委的请愿未达到该门槛。）Under Taiwanese election law, for a recall vote to pass, more votes must be cast in favor than against, and at least a quarter of all registered voters must vote to remove the lawmaker. If a lawmaker is recalled, fresh elections must be held within three months, and the recalled lawmaker is barred from running.根据台湾选举法，罢免案要想通过，赞成票必须多于反对票，且投票赞成罢免的人数需达到所有登记选民数的四分之一。如果立委被成功罢免，就必须在三个月内举行补选，被罢免者不得参选。A Setback for Taiwan’s President对台湾总统来说是一场挫败If a significant number of opposition lawmakers had been removed by the recall, it would have become much easier for Mr. Lai to push his agenda, which includes shifting Taiwan’s economy further from China.如果有相当数量的在野立委被罢免，赖清德推动其施政议程将变得更加容易，包括让台湾经济进一步脱离中国。Mr. Lai won the presidency in January last year, but the Nationalist Party took the most legislative seats: 52 of 113. With backing from the Taiwan People’s Party, a smaller opposition group, Nationalist lawmakers have been able to block Mr. Lai’s initiatives and advance their own, including cuts to his budget and efforts to expand the legislature’s powers.赖清德去年1月赢得总统大选，但国民党赢得了最多立委席位：113席中的52席。再加上较小在野党台湾民众党的支持，国民党立委能够阻挡赖清德的各项提案，并推进他们自己的议程，包括削减预算，以及扩大立法院的权力。But after voting ended on Saturday, preliminary counting soon suggested that majorities of voters in all 24 districts subject to recall were sticking with their lawmakers.但在周六的投票结束后，初步计票很快显示，24个面临罢免的选区中，多数选民都选择继续支持现任立委。台湾总统赖清德在台北，摄于5月。赖清德希望台湾未来脱离中国。The recall campaign’s failure could increase the confidence of Mr. Lai’s opponents — called the “blue” camp — before local elections next year and a presidential election in 2028.罢免行动失败可能会增强赖清德的反对派（所谓的“蓝营”）在明年地方选举和2028年总统大选前的信心。“This result was a big shock to the entire recall effort, which had been assuming that a lot of blue voters were going to stay home out of apathy,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University in Taipei. Of Mr. Lai, he said: “I also think that there is going to be some need for self-reflection about how he presents himself and the party. He is not winning over moderate voters, and he’s certainly not winning over blue voters.”“这个结果对整个罢免行动来说是一个重大打击，罢免方原本以为许多蓝营选民会因为冷漠而不出来投票，”台北的国立台湾大学政治学者南乐(Lev Nachman)说。他在谈到赖清德时指出：“我也认为他和他的政党有必要反思如何展现自己。他没有争取到中间选民，更不用说蓝营选民了。”Some supporters of the recall effort said that the numbers of voters who supported the recall could still send a message to Nationalist politicians.一些罢免支持者则表示，支持罢免的选民数量仍然向国民党政治人物传递了一个讯号。“If this is the result today, then we will respectfully accept it,” said Chen Ju-fen, who volunteered to support recall campaigns against two Nationalist Party lawmakers in Taipei. “But we citizens will not back down, and we will continue to keep an eye on these legislators.”“如果这是今天的结果，我们就是尊重接受，，”志愿参与台北两位国民党立委罢免行动的陈如芬说。“但是我们公民不退，我们会继续关切这些立法委员。”China Still Watches Warily中国仍在谨慎观察Chinese officials, not known for upholding democratic norms in their own country, had denounced the recall campaign as an effort to suppress opposition voices.中国官员自己并不以遵守民主规范而著称，但他们谴责这场罢免行动是在打压反对声音。On Sunday, Chen Binhua, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of China, said that Saturday’s voting results showed that “the Democratic Progressive Party’s political manipulation completely went against the will of the people on the island and was unpopular.”中国国台办发言人陈斌华周日表示，周六的投票结果显示，“民进党的政治操弄完全违背岛内人心民意，不得人心。”Chinese officials seem to particularly distrust Mr. Lai, who in the past has described himself as a “pragmatic worker” for Taiwan’s independence. His Democratic Progressive Party was founded in opposition to the idea that Taiwan is historically part of China and should pursue unification between the sides.中国官员对赖清德尤其不信任，赖过去曾称自己是“务实的台独工作者”。他所在的民进党成立的初衷就是反对台湾历史上是中国的一部分、应该追求两岸统一的观点。More recently, Mr. Lai has made speeches calling for Taiwan’s “national unity,” arguing that Taiwan is a full-fledged country.最近，赖清德发表讲话呼吁“团结国家”，主张台湾是一个成熟的国家。台湾桃园市抗议罢免运动的示威。批评人士称，这场运动是对应该谨慎使用的程序的滥用。In a move that might worsen tensions, Mr. Lai is expected to visit at least one of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in Latin America in August, with possible stopovers in the United States. That would anger Beijing, which has been working to isolate Taiwan and opposes any exchanges with Washington.赖清德预计将于8月访问台湾在拉丁美洲的至少一个邦交国，并可能过境美国。这可能会加剧两岸紧张局势，并激怒北京。北京一直在试图孤立台湾，反对它与华盛顿进行任何交流。储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site