China Caixin July 2025 Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (expected 50.3, prior 50.4)

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This is the private survey manufacturing PMI for July 2025: 49.5China’s manufacturing sector fell back into contraction in July, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.5, down from 50.4 in June and below market expectations. The sub-50 reading signals renewed weakness in industrial output, raising concerns about China’s growth momentum entering the third quarter.The survey showed new export orders fell for a fourth straight month, declining at a faster rate than in June, as demand softened. Manufacturing output slipped after a brief improvement in June, with firms relying more on existing inventories to fulfill orders — leading to a second consecutive drop in finished goods stocks.With production down and backlogs stable, manufacturers trimmed staff levels in July, citing weak demand and rising cost pressures.Despite these headwinds, business confidence ticked up, though it remained below the long-term average. Companies said they were hopeful that better economic conditions and marketing efforts might support sales in the months ahead.Meanwhile, input prices rose for the first time in five months, driven in part by Beijing’s push to rein in destructive price competition. Still, selling prices continued to decline, as firms vied aggressively for new orders. However, export prices climbed at their fastest pace in a year due to higher shipping and logistics costs.The weak PMI follows a similarly soft reading from the official government survey (link below), with analysts now warning that the boost from front-loaded exports ahead of U.S. tariffs may soon fade. Markets are also watching for potential new factory capacity cuts, as authorities consider measures to address deflation risks and disorderly competition in the second half of the year.---As a ps. Caixin no longer sponsor this data. ---Yesterday we had:China Manufacturing PMI (July 2025) 49.3 (vs. 49.7 expected) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.